Chicago has had a great season weatherwise. They have had plenty of rain and cool temperatures. Sweet corn was great this year. There was/is high heat in parts of the country along with moisture shortages. N & S Dakota is in the middle of a flash drought, if not long term. Their corn crop ratings are ugly. Rainmakers that come through have a lot of dry rain in them. Dry rain is my term for radar amounts that are less than actual rain hitting the ground. Ukraine corn is/has been dry all season. Europe had heat, dry weather and now alot of rain during the German and surrounding areas harvest. Early on, parts of Ill, IN Oh drowned out with replant, replant, etc. The dollar has dropped to 93+. If it goes thru 93, the next chart area is around 90-may be a big story yet to come. Crop ratings keep slowly dropping all season. I remember one dry summer when there was a flash rainstorm dropping several inches in Chicago when the grain markets took a quick swandive during/after the rain. The traders there were a little sheepish, saying that wasn't supposed to happen. Is it happening this year-just been too nice in Chitown all along?
"Chicago" doesn't exist anymore. Most of the trading is done by people without production knowledge, on a computer a long ways from Chicago. Prices are almost too closely related to USDA yield estimates that are not reality.
illini the thought that comes to me when I read much of the ag. press and marketing "pundants" .......... well It often sounds like a plea to be considered relevant and if they are not in front of a camera or quoted regularly the bubble will pop. It seems like there is a lot of huffin and puffin to try to keep air in that 1983 "bubble".
As a producer I sometines sound the same way......
Backyarditis is right. We see moaning about how bad the corn is in Misoouri. It was too wet. It was too dry. It is too hot. It's too bad. No one wishes a bad crop on anyone. (Well, maybe a bust in the Ukraine is OK, or China, but not me or my neighbors).
The deal is, Missouri produces less than 4% of the US corn crop.
The Dakotas are dry. Indiana is wet. OK. But much of Iowa is pretty darned good. Minnesota is not bad. I was up by Oshkosh last week and corn in NE Iowa is pretty good and in WI is quite variable.
What is the overall number? The variability draws attention to the outliers, but the bottom line is based on the big picture. Which includes SA, China, Ukraine, etc. etc.
Backyarditis is indeed the issue to watch for.
What makes the back yard count is the lofty expectations.. and that compared to 1974 (my first trip across Iowa) the current number of rural back yards in corn production (along with livestock lots and pastures)
we dont get this lofty production because we have a lot of back yards left to plow up. Acres dedicated is what drives that growth---- seed genetics is only the tail on that long uphll production line
And you can't struggle on many back yards and expect to get anywhere close to the expectations of usda.
I would say there are several million acres of dry land corn on the high plains that are already headed for "insurable" losses.
But of course right now usda is using netative basis to disqualify as many claims as possible.
Well, somebody had better be watching our backyard and back door. There is a lot of bad and incompetent stuff going on in the world. Some of it is in the agriculture industry. It's best to sleep with one eye open.