Bad News Darin Newsom on M2M

[sw363535]

Anybody realize that the environmental movement is over 50 yrs old. ------ Congress created --agency 46 years ago.  

We been beating that horse for a long time.  

[elcheapo]

Wheat nuts are back....they make them at Atchison.
Guess some outfit bought rights. Soy oil,. Wheat germ and some dairy stuff.
Think they are $4 for an 8 oz sack.

Sw maybe you'll know, about 15 yr ago they were
Pushing a wheat coop that would make wraps for
Burrito. They wanted you to give them $5k, plus
Wheat....wanted you to raise white wheat since
Ksu just released a variety.
Seems to me the mill was to be in sw ks
Supposed to be value added.
They tried a deal just north of here, going to
Sell frozen sweet corn...everything built, corn
Harvested....was broke within a year....they
Couldn't find people to buy the frozen sweet
Corn....some fellows took a pretty good bath.

[sw363535]

cheapo I raised HwhiteW for several years....... it was a low risk idea because the wheat could be marteted into the normal HRW if necessary and yielded well in our area...   The volume was definitely produced.  But as usual the market for the specialty crop was a concept, with promise not a reality.

One of those things I remember every time i here Specialty, healthy, nitch market promotions.  

If our finiky consumer who is willing to pay more for a "special" product, you need to be a little closer to them than I am.  But most often when the budget has extra money in it the consumer pays for someone else to prepare it. 

Right now it is not about specialty products, or even labeling, most consumers couldn't tell you the difference between bread from white wheat or red wheat on their plate.  Now it's all about the power to control production and consumption...

And the market for the raw commodities stays true to economic law or supply and demand.... No matter what KSU did, proving the quality of the specialty, it could not generate the demand for the product that would pay for the added cost of the isolation process.  Public opinion is one thing.  Public purchasing is another.  

A lady who used to fix my meals had a pat answer for the question, "(Would you pay more for the appearance of) quality?"  the answer that came--- When there is more money in my grocery budget, I am going to pay for delivery..

Like the protestors, most consumers cannot explain the terms or the  difference between them ------ "travel restrictions", "Immigration", "Religous Freedom", "Racial injustice",  I have seen these terms used interchangeably this weekend.  

It is all about the power to control. And if they cannot discern the difference between those terms, I don't want them making decisions.

White wheat was the same way.  The consumer did not see the difference between white and red wheat, like KSU did.  White needed to displace Red in the market place and there was not enough reason to change.

[timetippingpt]

"What is the upside potential on wheat if we have a freeze?"

Darin: "There isn't any. There isn't any."

The lows are in when the "experts" are convinced.

Mooooooo.

[sw363535]

That is what I think Time,

I think Darin is trying to make Iowa and the dakota's feel better for giving away a corn crop.  And wheat makes him $0.

I think wheat has bottomed and not all that cheaply....  the board price is not that far from COP at $4.50 range......on the high plains.

The damage is being done with the basis and that is killing acres harvested.  Insurance claims are already lining up from wheat that did not come up or the stand is so weak it will make a claim quickly.-- especially since the guarantee is already in so much higher than the basis market.   I would say that wheat is a 40% loss in parts of the SW already. without a late freeze.  We got irrigated started with a couple passes of water but the dry land is nearly all very poor stands...

... add that to the amount that will be eaten off or sprayed for whatever crop looks better...... The acres are going to be down even farther than expected now.

The only thing that I see promoting wheat acres is if every other alternative stays gets so cheap that the COP demands the cheapest alternative cover crop and a crop that can produce revenue without a combine.  And I'm sure Darin is not that sadistic.

[elcheapo]

one market advisory outfit i talked to last year about wheat, suggested to plant some wheat this past year, no really to sell, but for

seed wheat for the comming year.....their ideas were that acres would be down......but i doubt they factored in the weather

at that time.

you may be right....when the fellows with the greased and combed back hair decide there is going to be less wheat we'll see something

happen....but.....with fewer acres, things not looking good on the current crop, one of these days they'll look this way and nod.