man, only 30 days till you need cash. thats scary.
In short cash situations, I like basis contracts, cause they pay me 75% of spot until I settle on futures. This helps in this type of situation where I think basis is strong and futures may improve, but I need $$$.
YMMV; I don't know how contracts work in USA, but thats how things work for me here in Canada (i.e. our laws mandate an advance on basis contracts).
Your basis may go up-- each area is different for supply; my area is oversupplied, so basis remains crap.
Well, what are you going to be upset about. 50 cent drop and still holding or a 50 cent rally and sold out before the rally. Take your pick, if a 50 cent drop is no big deal, then hold and you can't go wrong unless it was a dollar drop, Really hard to sell on the way down if you get stubborn.
I've never understood selling the cash and buying paper. What is the benefit?
1. Get rid of the physical so you have no risk of damage
2. Use the money to pay off debt
What is the down side?
1. Pay brokerage fees or risk margin calls
2. Historically, reowning does not pay
I hope enough people sell at the $7 level, and make the profits they want of course, to let the market move to $8 so that I can finish up my corn sales for 2012 and make the profit that I want.
Nice overnight rally going on, both corn and soybeans. If weather looks dicey at all this spring and summer, should be great opportunities to cash forward contract the 2013 production. Unless you listened to the really smart guys and sold before the rally started.
But maybe $5 a bushel works in some cases for making money...if you don't have $250 plus fert and lime expenses, if you don't have to buy $300 and up hybrid seed corn, and if you don't have any rent expenses. Oh, and if you can get the neighbor to do all the field work for you and not charge you. Otherwise, in the real world, we need high corn prices to make money.
How long you been farming corn? i would be doing scale up selling all year, unless you are one of those permabull farmers that has more money than sence.
For now, since you are holding a bunch of corn, why not sell 25-30% now, 25-30% in two-three weeks, 25-30% in 3-5 weeks. and hold the rest until "your gut tells you to sell."
Yes, I never did sell any corn yesterday and I see the market is up. That's not right, the market only goes up after I sell some!!!!!!!