Barchart Yield Estimates

[marketeye]

Barchart sees downside risk on U.S. yield and production. It released its first crop estimates, for 2021, today. What do you think, too low, too high, or just about right?

[BA Deere]

Averages are tricky.  I think we`ve had some little hits here and there and sort of side with Barchart. Maybe the guy that gets 150 normally receives rain and will get 175. And the guy that gets normally 250 had cold and freeze, early planting premium gone and struggles for 225?   It`s early   

[sdholloway56]

I see nothing to suggest anything other than slightly trend+ at this point.

This is a very early juncture.

Although given the slight early dryness, I think way above trend is a slightly elevated possibility.

[illinifarmer]

Off if my county average of 167- 44 I’d say a little high.  Then again it’s an average estimate for national so, we’ll see.

[rickgthf]

The drought map shows ND, SD & parts of Neb. dry to really dry.  If  ND & SD lose most of their corn crop, that would be about a billion bushel (6.6%) or 11 bushels off the average, so yeah I can see it losing 6 bushels just in those two states, easy.  If Neb. gets dinged as well, it could easily be worse.

  And even parts of Minn. are dry.

[roarintiger1]

Corn has to make 100 before it can get to 179.

[Hobbyfarmer]

total guess, something to do for those with too little actual productive work to do.

Reminds me of an old saying ...

"Figures lie and liars figure"

'19 production was generally accepted to be overstated (read this to say over guessed)

'20 production was a whiff also because of dryness out west and a little breeze through the best of Iowa.

Oh yea then there was/is the little underguess of exports and what's gonna turn out to be a dismal over estimation of the south American crops.

They are fast approaching weatherman status with a long range forecast. Abysmal but still get paid.

Very good place to say "bah humbug"

Or maybe " move along, move along, nothing to see here".

[rsbs]

well, I have 20 acres that has not been planted for over 4 years, and if this weeks heat and dryness materializes, it should be under plow in time for crop insurance. Well, the heat, and the tiling professional that should show up today.

20 acres of $1000 per acre crop should pay his bill.

[sdholloway56]

Corn is remarkably resilient if it is planted under drier conditions with little compaction and then moderate dryness pulls the roots to China. But it does have to rain sometime.

Beans- if you have to mow the lawn 5 times in August, you’ll have a big bean crop. That’s most of it.

Right now we’ve eliminated one negative factor- a widespread wet spring. Thus I think you have to say trend, plus a little.

Better- a slightly flattened probability Bell Curve with both tails slightly fatter.

That definitely includes a greater than normal mega-boomer scenario even if the probability is still not that high.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Iceland is working on a drought, complete with fires etc.

Their last drought was in 2012. I was there in July that year.

Was great from a tourist point of view, everyday warm and sunny.

Over 70° the day we went north of the arctic circle.

Anybody remember 2012 back here in the states?

I remember coming home and mowing hay with the tractor reading 105° outside temp.