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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Drought map

Could be.

But based on sunspots and other factors I’m betting the odds of widespread drought aren’t highly elevated.

But certainly greater than 0. And probably somewhat less than a mega-crop.

But the likely solution lies between the 2 at greater than 80% probability.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Drought map

It is a bad attempt to get us to take our eye off the ball.

Hoping we will all start to cash in quick fence row to fence row.

I am telling you this crop has full potential for disaster.  Total failure.  Money is on the way.  No reason to plant any extra acres or work it hard, because the risks are high.  

The guesses are still coming from the cheap seats in DC. or the Market cheer leaders, who need spec day trading to get paid.

The market is still built on demand--- That is not going away soon or until the next virus gets hype.  But marketing fear may have run its course.  What is most important is buyers and after the JBS stop this week, more grain is needed to feed the high inventory of cattle on feed.

Having critters in the farm yard is becoming popular and diversity is back in the vocabulary.  The fence row to fence row ethanol forever days may be behind us.

What do we believe when we can't trust what is in print??  Maybe kitchen table accounting will come back in style.  If so corn may see lots of competition for acres....... maybe already did a couple years back.  Right now there are lots of ways to make $200 an acre... producers can worship at several alters ...not just the expensive one.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Drought map

Lol. While I can always appreciate individuals' concerns, if this page was anywhere near an accurate assessment then mankind would have starved a long while back.

Theoretically, the corn crop is probably losing some hypothetical yield potential. In the real world it is putting roots down to China where, given half a chance by some rainfall, it will soak up scads of nutrients- including the nitrogen that isn't being lost plus the latent stuff down deep.

And don't even start thinking about soybeans until the middle of July. Same applies- I suppose 120 bu beans need a lot of vegetative growth in addition to a lot else but the 80 bu ones don't.

I would expect that the crop ratings will reflect a modest decline from current high levels, as they should. That is a very imperfect system but vastly better than anyone's out the kitchen window opinion.

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Drought map

 

Mother Nature is in charge, not some bureaucrat or crop guesser spouting off before it's even planted.

 

 

 

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Jun3_21-Western-Parana-Corn-Yields-Could-be-Down-as-Much-as-35

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