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Honored Advisor

Re: What is there to say,......

Well, when there is no market discussion the void seems to get filled on here with spam credit card offers and China trolls.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What is there to say,......

Ba You don't know how to discuss marketing. 

It's  always Trump this or trump that.  Your 2 kromagnum for markets. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: What is there to say,......

Other than weather there is 1)the 'rona 2) trade 3) ethanol problems

If you can't talk about those there isn't much to talk about.

Rick has pretty well stuck to the script on those topics. I haven't, entirely.

Sorry if I hurt anyone's self esteem.

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Senior Contributor

Re: What is there to say,......

Hasn’t marketing and politics become one in the same over the years? It’s what special interest can grease the politicians hand the best that gets the advantage in the markets they are in. Policy and rules affect markets both directly and indirectly both intentionally and unintentionally. Is there really a such thing as a market free from politics or gov policies anymore? Please provide an example! Markets are actually boycotted in some instances to affect one group over another at times! But you and I will never see it unless we stumble across something we aren’t supposed to see which I have! So marketing and markets without politics? Well be assured there is no such thing anymore.

Honored Advisor

Re: What is there to say,......

 nonsense goes on.... 

because

1— usda chose to leave reporting on USAgeiculture to be the voice of the worlds agriculture.  Seeking to assume to be US agriculture rather than observe USAgriculture. Not to mention their fear of living in the Kansas City area  

2.  CBOT  seeking massive profits left the diminished US market for a stake in the world market gaining a cut in every contract of World traded grain 

3    Massive expansion in irrigation over the last 40 years as well as continuing popularity of other water management tools like tiling, combined with tech improvements in equipment  & biology — and very stimulating tax code and clean energy drive —have made the most consistant crop and livestock production force in the world even more dependable — rendering it nearly irrelevant in world marketing terms.

4.   Producers are scrambling to find new marketing avenues beyond the traditional.  As the contracts become more direct with end users and production is forced into preplant commitments or feeding programs.. marketing becomes less traditional  

5  as mentioned folks get sick of watching markets controlled by the usda bear assumptions  — no sense in discussing poor choices  produced by monopoly positions as politics continues its destruction of a competitive marketplace (the demon capitalism).  Survival is more affected by federal handouts than the open market — expert opinion becomes a waste of time   

6.  The continuing infomercial of political positions that deny elections and subvert elected officials and speak in opposition to the vote of nearly every state in the Midwest, has to cost readership, as it has for nearly every media business in the last 5 years.  The assumption that voters are stupid or wrong is not good for any business that depends on Midwest residents 

in 50 years of reading SF I never noticed an anti US posture like we have seen in the last 5. (Or just  the personal attacks on character )    SF also may need to find a greater world loyalty as the regional one diminishes.  It is hard to see loyalty diminish with free subscriptions.   But it’s not hard on social media formats where low participation and the need to be “relevant” can cripple  —- old school marketing is not functioning as it once did when foreign competitors can drive prices in the US with rumors.  We need leaders who solve these problems not create them  

 

Honored Advisor

Re: Based upon number of postings, this site is dead

Time. You have told me as have many others (including one of my sons) that markets don't care about cost of production.   

I still disagree,   When the market is not relevant enough to provide a profitable price or on the other hand, clear the surplus, that market is not functioning relevant to production or demand.  Without the mechanism to level international trade of commodities and prevent the manipulation of monopoly positions we don’t have a marketing process.   China has gone way beyond anything the Hunt brothers ever tried. Yet there is no recourse and until there is  all international players have a free hand to depress markets.  There is a loss of confidence in international trade creating a void of process for regional trade. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Based upon number of postings, this site is dead

SW, the market has the luxury of not having to be concerned with the farmer`s cost of production, because due to LDP, MFP, CFAP, PLC ARC, FSA low interest loans, RA subsidized crop insurance, ect.  They know the bushels will come and production will be wall to wall.  There is nothing to curtail over-production and burdensome supplies.  Every spring we climb into our drag racers and when the light turns green it`s pedal to the metal until we pass the finish line.

How many of us are side dressing 200 bushel corn in hopes of getting 250?  And at the coop the blackboard has "$2.90 new crop" headed for $2.40.  It`s like you go to a restaurant and they burn your food, but the waitress gives you more of it   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Based upon number of postings, this site is dead

I think BA and SW both get some things very right about this mess

1) The policy of not allowing anyone in ag to fail is well entrenched. We are going to grow 14/15 bil bu regardless of how many we need. How can we not? The incentives are all in place.   (This is why I immediately asked for a 10% corn setaside in March....a request that was considered blasphemy by my friends in Washington). Probably another MFP of sorts on the way, another reduction in the price needed to survive. Thus, no reason for price to recover, no one needs it.

2) Low interest rates just simply cause commodities to get overproduced. It is just that simple. We pattern tiled another 200 acres this year, up to 4000 now, or 65%, and all our owned acres,  why not, interest is cheap and yield increases are guaranteed. We VRT spread chicken litter on every acre. why not, interest is cheap and yield increases are gauranteed. New irrigation still being installed in the heartland which is only stupid if rates are high and the land owner is broke (remember no one is allowed to be broke).

Despite the Rick and Dave comments above, babbling about politics is not marketing. Nor is blaming any particular party for every stupid act, the CARES act stuff for ag was pretty unanimous, as was PPP, CFP, etc. No one cares about the currency, it is toast. A currency with no value is the ultimate discrimination....those affected will find out soon enough. Everything about this event so far just makes the rich, richer. Just reduced our home mortage to 2.3%, pretty sure no landlord reduced anyone's rent. etc.

My point was that there is no marketing strategy discussion anymore. No one with an idea. No one willing to share an idea because it will be immediately attacked or ridiculed. Kind of a social media thing I guess. Only downside to say anything of substance or value.

The idea to buy calls that we presented a couple of months ago is still working, and still a good idea, despite the perfect weather we are having everywhere  :-) 

Senior Advisor

Re: Based upon number of postings, this site is dead

This administration gutted the the RFS. 

The trade reality TV show has not yielded concrete results, in fact, to the contrary.

It is the worst in the developed world on the 'rona.

So let's talk about something else, shall we?

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Based upon number of postings, this site is dead

I'll remain unbowed in saying that the above mentioned topics are marketing related.

It probably would be inappropriately political for this particular board to discuss the POTUS' failure to respond to intel assessments that Russia put a bounty on US troops. That's bad anyway you twist it, except to maintain that it is a total fabrication. Despite multiple confirmations, that's where the lie will have to land, since there's nowhere else to go.

As far as the blithe BA-esque assessment that agriculture must always be bailed out, maybe.

But consider the moment. Old Fart America is on its last stand to burn the bridges before the world can turn. The last 3-4 weeks have been devastating to that effort. I think it is more likely that the trend continues further vs. the confidence in these circles that the grand master will pull something out again. How?

My Farmers aren't just all in on the effort, they're the Bambis of the movement along with pore coal miners. Despite huge leveraging via the electoral college, the political influence of "agriculture" may decline to something more proportional to actual importance.

 

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