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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Bean sales. WOW!

This is a quote from Jerry Gidel.

 

With virtually the whole year ahead, this week’s export sales of 103.5 million bushels (only first week of 2009-10 crop year higher) has pushed this year’s sales to 67.4% of the current USDA forecast – record portion for this date. This sales pace makes it hard to adjust our U.S. soybean exports sales downward in the immediate future.    

 

 

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10 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

.....and the bean walls continue to close in on the USDA........they are running out of air.

 

got my attn: this week - meal sales were mostly 2014-15 ------- b/c there isn't much 2013-14 left on the shelf...........before it's out of the field??? Hmmm.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

If we learn anything from the market reaction today -------- Maybe the market expects to run out of beans.  And since we expect it the market will go down until expectations are fulfilled.

That is pretty much the market logic for 2013.

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

More wheat may also have been fed than expected? Man it has been cool to see wheat lead out the markets for a day or so.
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

Nobody in Chicago cares.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

Wonder what kind of bid we could get from China for the CBOT.  Maybe through in USDA as a package deal.

 

Probably be lucky to get an immigrant to be named later.

pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

Coming off  a tight ES  US marketing year, and lookig at a good but below trend 13/14 crop.  There would be catch up to do, expected no?  SEE your post re same for WHEAT, 6 wks and 50 cents ago.   Demand use is the least variable of the dominant variables. Rule of thumb is over time use gradually increases with greowing popultion and increased std of livings. There is NO wake up and all the sudden  DEMAND jumped 100 MMT!.

 

My bet us is after  2 yrs where Px rose from US harvest on,  brain imprint influneces importer strategy.

This YR they are baised to be out in front.   Which if course compositely is net bearish.

 

A deal made today isn't one  needed in 3 months

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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

Of course they could see the handwriting on the wall and are getting their share first.  They are locking in their needs first.  They won't be short bought.   Do you understand Pritch?

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mnvtfarm
Veteran Contributor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

When the price goes down they will cancel the purchases, then wait and repurchase for a lower price. I wish us producers could do the same on cash sales. 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Bean sales. WOW!

In a theoretical sense your points are worthy but, in a real world situation they aren't necessarily so.

 

Grain commodities aren't like water that maintains a balance everywhere it reaches at a given level. All grain stocks are not available, or as easily transported to or from any destination at the same prices.

 

One example was when Russia committed and exported too much and then had to import milling wheat to satisfy internal consumption. Though globally wheat supply was satisfactory to meet needs, Russia paid up to import more costly grain.

 

I could go on.

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