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08-31-2017 08:29 AM
Another 60 million bushel out the door ............ mostly new crop ............. new crop,, that is the ones out there in the field without many pods... and plenty of hail damage... looking like a 30 bu crop.
A good year for exports
Above trade estemates.......... that just needs to be said.
We must be careful what we say here...... after all ..... fear mongering and "tragedy emotionalizing" is the only behavior acceptable around us in the progressive world, but in agriculture we can be heavily criticized and face "Tar & feathers" if we dare complain about a little thing like working for nothing all year.,
Or worse yet "owe too much Money"........because of our greed of expecting a return on investment.
Anyway........... politely said ........... it is 53 degrees this august morning on the high plains........ a cold month...... that is not good for a bean crop that expects record yields... not even a record crop it will be a "whamma bama dicamba moonshot yield crop".......or just a dissapointment......so we will depend on a "Brazil molehill mountain avalanche to the moon yield" crop.................... beans are still beans..... the world depends on Brazil. All the US can produce is "hype",,,we have a flood of that.
08-31-2017 10:14 AM
I'm just a part-time farmer, so I realize those that rely on farm income to make their living may not do things the same way as someone in my situation would, but I was able to forward contract all of my crop insurance bushels at an average of $9.73. I sold 1/4 of my bushels each in Januray, February, and March after rallies, and then sold the last 1/4 of my bushels in July after a rally. Now, I didn't sell at the high on each of those rallies - especially the July one, I sold at $9.41 and a week and half later harvest contract price was up to $9.93 - but I did make 3 of the 4 sales in the $9.80's and the one at $9.41 was acceptable to me at the time. All sales were well above my cost of production using my APH. I don't know how many producers use forward pricing tools, but I think they are a must if one is to even "break-even" these days. I know one of my buddies told me he didn't forward price anything, and he's looking at selling beans with an $8 in front of them and corn with a $2 in front of it. The days of taking crops to the elevator at harvest and selling spot and making a profit are gone for the time being. Now watch, since I've said that when November gets here the price will be above $10. Just my thoughts.
08-31-2017 10:30 AM
Quite a few of took advantage Jim, add a few strategic exits and re-enters, big chunk of the crop (well
given so little rain in august- ALL the crop is north of $11. I have those covered with calls at this
point, this game is not over by a long ways. It hasn't paid to have grain priced from 9/1 to 12/31 often
in my lifetime. :-)
08-31-2017 09:55 PM - edited 08-31-2017 09:59 PM
March if you think theres a short crop coming., May take to the Jan report to get confirmation from USDA.,
May if you want to ride through the south American main crop and have a lite more time to get out.