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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,599
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Beans --on sale

Another 60 million bushel out the door ............ mostly new crop ............. new crop,, that is the ones out there in the field without many pods...  and plenty of hail damage... looking like a 30 bu crop.

 

A good year for exports 

 

Above trade estemates.......... that just needs to be said.

 

We must be careful what we say here...... after all ..... fear mongering and "tragedy emotionalizing" is the only behavior acceptable around us in the progressive world, but in agriculture we can be heavily criticized and face "Tar & feathers" if we dare complain about a little thing like working for nothing all year.,

Or worse yet "owe too much Money"........because of our greed of expecting a return on investment. 

 

Anyway........... politely said ........... it is 53 degrees this august morning on the high plains........ a cold month...... that is not good for a bean crop that expects record yields... not even a record crop it will be a "whamma bama dicamba moonshot yield crop".......or just a dissapointment......so we will depend on a "Brazil molehill mountain avalanche to the moon yield" crop....................  beans are still beans..... the world depends on Brazil.  All the US can produce is "hype",,,we have a flood of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Beans --on sale

We had a chance to sell beans on the board last month for 10.36.  How many of us took it?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Beans --on sale

Ever try delivering to the board?

 

And getting your $10 and change?

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Beans --on sale

I never deliver to the board.  I buy it back when at harvest and can then deliver the grain based on local sales.  Hedging.

Veteran Reader
Posts: 3
Registered: ‎08-31-2017
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Re: Beans --on sale

I'm just a part-time farmer, so I realize those that rely on farm income to make their living may not do things the same way as someone in my situation would, but I was able to forward contract all of my crop insurance bushels at an average of $9.73.  I sold 1/4 of my bushels each in Januray, February, and March after rallies, and then sold the last 1/4 of my bushels in July after a rally.  Now, I didn't sell at the high on each of those rallies - especially the July one, I sold at $9.41 and a week and half later harvest contract price was up to $9.93 - but I did make 3 of the 4 sales in the $9.80's and the one at $9.41 was acceptable to me at the time.  All sales were well above my cost of production using my APH.  I don't know how many producers use forward pricing tools, but I think they are a must if one is to even "break-even" these days.  I know one of my buddies told me he didn't forward price anything, and he's looking at selling beans with an $8 in front of them and corn with a $2 in front of it.  The days of taking crops to the elevator at harvest and selling spot and making a profit are gone for the time being.  Now watch, since I've said that when November gets here the price will be above $10.  Just my thoughts.

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Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,061
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Beans --on sale

Quite a few of took advantage Jim, add a few strategic exits and re-enters, big chunk of the crop (well

given so little rain in august- ALL the crop is north of $11. I have those covered with calls at this 

point, this game is not over by a long ways. It hasn't paid to have grain priced from 9/1 to 12/31 often

in my lifetime.  :-)

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,478
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Beans --on sale

There may be a much better price than that $10.36 on the way............Smiley Wink

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Beans --on sale

are you saying go long beans?  Which month?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Beans --on sale

[ Edited ]

March if you think theres a short crop coming., May take to the Jan report to get confirmation from USDA., 

 

May if you want to ride through the south American main crop and have a lite more time to get out.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,478
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Beans --on sale

Agreed.   March would be a start.    I know it's a stretch, but with a lesser crop here and any weather problems in S.A. this thing is set up to be very explosive.   Time will tell.