Beans/the perfect storm
Trade has been long beans short corn and added to those positions last week.
ARG forecast cooler wetter. China see's the first Braziian beans SHIP to them. China
says there not stock piling beans anymore, going to use subsities. Cancel of old crop US beans
around the corner?? Perfect storm setup
March beans closed under key moving avg's today with no problem. Close under 1255 wont look pretty.
Re: Beans/the perfect storm
$12.00 nearest futures will be the best fire sale buy from now till August.
IMO if anyone gets wrapped in the media/China games -- might as well get a gun or a noose and find the gallows.......................
beans are acting very anomalous right now.
i doubt we see prompt below 1250 anytime soon.
The USDA will
goose the market before it collapses into planting time. The last thing they need is market mayhem on acreage . . and their little charade with the Chinese could well have unintended consequences. Bankrupting the Ag Sector isn't in their best interest.
Re: The USDA will
Thank you BF - US needs to hold onto as many acres as they can AND THEN SOME. she's range-bound 1245-1350 until???
don't believe current prices are buying ANY more acres from last yr.....correct me if i'm wrong here. thanks.
I love planting corn. If I had my way about it, there wouldn't be a soybean on my farm....yet in 2014 I'll be planting 100% soybeans unless I decide to take the cash rent offer I have on my entire operation. You should see the pained look on our seed, chemical and fertilzer dealers down here....oh....second only to the crew down at John Deere...seeing how most guys I know can farm for at least the next 10 years and beyond with the equipment they have.
Some real fugly stuff is about to go down across the fruited plains this season. We could bring the entire seed industry to it's knees by cancelling all of our seed orders. Ya'll rmember that huge production of commercial corn this year.....and the price is now 1/2 of it's previous value? The seed industry answer for their glut is to put it in storage, cut seed production,, and sell the crap to us over the next 3 years.....or until they decide to sell it to Europe or South America for a nickle on the dollar like they did in the early 90's.
Re: buying acres
it'll be interesting to see how the C/B mix shakes out for sure.
as it stands from 2 weeks ago US export sales HAVE to show net cancellations over the entire REMAINDER of 2013-2014 mktg yr. to keep ending stocks from falling below 150.