Man the beans are just in that spot in futures right now. Pretty wound up, fidgitty and no place to go yet.
It is starting to look like a market to watch...
I haven't done the research or chart study......been tied up in harvest....but the export issue is big enough to stabilize harvest pressure. And lots of bean acres were planted.....
Which always means the average yield is down especially when expectations were sooooo high. But sales are impressive and continuing
And harvest is almost over for them........
Anecdotally, locally bean yields are down from last year, 50 is catching a lot of `em. Now at a coop they had you dumping beans in 3 places a old building with a old slow leg for really dry, steel bins for pretty dry and the silo (the naughty line) for +14%. Well, in the past big bean yield years they had unloading in a machine and chemical storage building a auger setup and you drove in and dumped in a pile. Well this year they didn`t have to utilize that building. Oh I hear "70 bushel blah blah blah" this year, but I also hear "barely 40". So I don`t know, USDA says Iowa is "57" I think that`s plenty high. Perhaps "50 is the new eighty" in reference to a post made a year ago
Beans look volatile........... the seismic rumblings signal it is not comfortable where it is... slides the pops up 4-6 cents suddenly the slides
So I'm waiting for a truck so lets look at a chart of the last year...
I anticipated a huge swing to beans....... may not have happened in the I states but did in ks where I get the seed sales info and the rumblings of corn production Acres in the US southern reaches went to cotton and beans... I did not anticipate the double cropping levels in KS but that just adds to the numbers and kills the yield average.
keep it short............
Beginning with the usda directives on the future of grain prices in Feb and March the market began to slide as directed, clearly headed for the $8 range possibly. Then weather concerns in July and august offered a mid season selling opportunity. Hammered down in August by the rain makes grain sentiment and "the crops look great" drive by sentiment, as cool and wet dominated much of the midwest( southern midwest especially)
I don't pay that much attention to the highs on a trend view, so I look at the point where the selling needs a higher price to continue. So the season low was set in late June. Since that time the market has turned on higher lows and establishes an upward pattern. We could view this as well into an upward trend that has not been turned by harvest pressure --- and harvest is all but done for beans.
I would say that export sales have been more important than this "Proclaimed" big crop.
If the next leg up clears 10.12 we have a lot of strength..... Exports are huge... and the next negative is off in a distant february/March 18 when SA and USDA both harvest their next crops
In the first sentence it is "Slides, then pops up 4-6 cents suddenly then slides"
I am weary of correcting the respelling done on this format.
I'm comfortable with my own creative grammer
The soybean fields west of Faribault, MN Friday morning looked whiter than
the cotton fields north of Wellington, KS Saturday. Many fields of beans
got snowed on in MN and this week's weather isn't going to be conducive
to harvest. I'm glad we wrapped up Thursday.
Many bean fields we saw along I35 in KS were a foot tall at best.
I hate combining beans when they're that short.
There were big numbers of acres in ks that looked like that. More acres planted than I have ever seen (beans)... and probably 25-30 bushel at best..... and many acres of them got planted back to wheat after harvest.
Many were double crop behind wheat and had a very limited potential...... but even 20 bushel beans on a double crop at $9 a bushel, made sense for the guys trying to survive the wheat market at $3.
There are some bad things happening at Coops and independent elevators right now----- Southern Iowa tells me there are elevators that won't take beans unless they are contracted or sold across the scales at basis + discounts.
(One of those things that happen when farm storage and bypassing the elevator occurs)
Something i have never seen before........ Direct from the field irrigated corn to Feedmills in our area is being rejected for Fumonicin levels....... Seaboard Mill at Optima, Oklahoma. 200+ bushel corn with no evidence of damage.
It is conditional ....That august with low 70 degree highs, three weeks of cloudy weather, and 12 inches of rain, was not a good thing..... Rain doesn't allways make grain.
Usda will not recognize it but insurance claims will reflect it....
Ours were all irrigated and were poor... 54 average irrigated..... with a normal average of 65 to 80...
8 of our 12 fields were in hail...... Hail that took 60% off the corn yield in the same area....Mid august.
Area 4 miles wide and 15 miles long.
I expected failure on beans and corn to be decent. and got the opposite, all hailed beans went 45 or better.
There were a lot of double crop beans in central ks and dry conditions (non irrigated)... anytime the acres are high there is marginal and double crop involved, thus lower yield averages should be expected on a national average basis.