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11-10-2015 10:44 AM
I think this is closer to a "liberal trap".
Those who thought $5 to $6 corn and $13+ beans were the new norm are convinced all growers are losing money/equity. They may be right.
Problem there are still a few ol "farmers" out there that are still quite a way in to income tax territory even at these prices.
Brazil is on track to plant a record acreage. Might be financial storm clouds on the horizon for the liberal spenders out here in the hinterlands.
Quite a bit of crop to be harvested he r e yet.
Piles around this area ... I've never had as many bushels of corn and beans and wheat as I'm sitting on now,
I have an ins claim on one crop and was told yesterday the adjusters for this area are being requested to go to Indiana for two weeks.
Said it would be after thanksgiving before they would work my claim. How am I supposed to be in the running for underachiever of the year if I can't get my entry in?
11-10-2015 11:42 AM
I would really like to believe that with a "high" dollar, piles of corn on the ground, silos usually meant for corn that are full of beans and Brazilian ships of corn in Carolina ports that we`ll have $5 corn and $11 beans. However, that`s a pretty big dream.
I think we will have an opportunity to sell `16 $4 corn and $10 beans, however the 5 days that it occurs next June, will we have the "brass" to pull the trigger? The conditions for $4 corn will cause deer in headlight syndrome...the 30 days straight rain during planting or extreme dry conditions.
It appears that "average weather" is all it takes for there to be potential for record crops and unfortunately the market also sees this. I don`t know if it`s the extreme timeliness with fieldwork or lack of poor farmers or increased seed vigor or improved fertility or all of the above. But it seems that record crops are a bigger threat to our profitablity than a crop failure these days.
11-10-2015 02:42 PM
People that talk the yields down and the prices up fail miserably. So what will be the project planted acres and the projected yields for 2016? How long are you gonna keep the bin doors welded? Land prices?
11-10-2015 06:14 PM - edited 11-10-2015 06:17 PM
Sometimes "what is real" is subject to the observer (or the source), or not real at all, or readily debatable. That's pretty universal as well, I think.
[Hey, 2 posts in as many minutes, guess we're back, thanks IZ.]
11-10-2015 07:24 PM - edited 11-10-2015 07:27 PM
2016 planted acres for corn ......... 104 million acres with a 195 yield ..... It is very reachable and possible
2016 planted acres for Soybeans 97 million acres with a 60 bushel yield ........very possible
Lets see how well that level of pessimism works...
Let's chear for what's best for me,, Lets clean out the "marginal" and Young competition and lets cut these prices to the governmental support level so the retired can't find renters and the land finds a much lower price level..... There are too many old folks hoarding land...
Thee things you don't want to hear get labeled lies and conspiracies and fail miserably.... even when someone "talks" the yield down a bushel or two or says there are 2 million drowned out acres by survey and projection, we are still talking about near record yields and near record usage...... And Frankly, I have never seen anyone "talk" the price up...... talk of upward prices is always in the past tense, because it takes real production or usage fundamentals to raise price....... But Talking the price down happens months before the crop is planted. Proving that Palouser is right at least half the time... The market is a lagging indicator in terms of upward price movement. It must see the truth(the sale or the crop failure) first..... But in a downward market all it takes is a rumor or a lie, as you say, and those in the market begin to protect themselves in case prices are going down...... self fullfilling profecy no matter how big the lie is...
There are no bins locked here....... Don, I can sell 40 % more corn to pay the same expenses I did a couple of years ago...... that's 40% more bushels sold without paying taxes.......... Hooooooraaaaay
11-10-2015 07:44 PM - edited 11-10-2015 07:44 PM
enjoyed that sw....
Back to the markets....I'm lovin the price action. Tomorrow is the big day (as long as todays lows hold the game is on).
We haven't owned this many beans since early 2007.
11-10-2015 09:45 PM
Three weeks of pent up dry humor......
Time, our ownership position for beans is in limbo...... We sold off the combine to the crusher and are intending to reown on the board.... Primarily to provide additional storage for corn & Milo.
Hope we didn't just miss on our attempt ......
11-10-2015 10:00 PM
I don`t think it`s so much of some farmers talking "prices up" in hopes that a Chicago trader will overhear it and say " Oh my God, it`s dry over in Eagle Grove according to some poster on a ag site, I`m gonna go long Dec corn!!!".
In some cases, it`s backyarditis and someone just thinking out loud, hoping to not be a cult of one.
11-11-2015 04:44 AM
sw...sell some Jan puts...we did the 5.50's at .18, and some 5.40's at .13. Tough to get that now, but still alot a juice there.
If yesterday's lows don't hold, we would have to exit and then reenter immediately on the next buying trigger. Especially in the KC wheat, we finally got down to support at 4.50ish. The lows might have to come in December, but they might not. For the pattern I want to partipate in, we ran the stops as hoped, follow through would ruin the pattern. So, exit and then try again with a quick trigger finger. jop (just our plan).