Posts: 13,047
Registered: ‎02-06-2014

Re: Bear Claws?

I'll take the other side of that based on the penetration of triple bottom support.


Selling the 8.60 SF put to buy 2 8.40s at a wash.


Risk is tolerable relative to potential reward.


As the saying goes, strategy trumps opinion.



Senior Contributor
Posts: 980
Registered: ‎01-03-2015

Re: Bear Claws?

Seems like a lot of risk for only .18 and .13 cents reward Time.
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,254
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: Bear Claws?

Not much premium when prices are in the lower 1/3 of their range. Never is. My view it is a pretty easy 18 cents for a few weeks in an inverted soybean market. Long at 8.32, 8.27 if exercised. That is pushing into the part of the range we shouldn't be able to get to until next harvest.


Might not work, not claiming to know the future. Merely applying our strategy at an emotional timing point. We've made good returns selling options when others thought they were risky. Just part of the territory I guess.


I'd just stress that we have timing reasons for considering this at this point, especially in the wheat, corn, and natgas. They might not work. We will just have to wait and see.