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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Bear hibernate

Many bulls waiting for the bear to go into hibernation. It could be at the end of next yr harvest.

 

FSA says 8.8 million PP acres, the second highest on record. We will gain 3 million or 4 back into corn next spring. BUT also we will lose some acres cuz of price and COC acres. Wash. So do we plant 90-92-93 mil 2014 crop?? Peak corn isnt dead

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25 Replies
hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

Market somewhat reflects it but the bigger takeaway seems to be that we could finally see a pretty big build in global soy stocks with 5-7 million more acres here (and the potential to at least hold corn carryout at least steady).

 

All in due course. SA weather, then ours, and how much does China take in total.

 

But here's what I think the producer should write in the dust on his pickup dash so he doesn't forget it.

 

The past hald dozen years have trained you to not be in too big a hurry to sell weather rallies. But in this environment it's back to the same 'ol- better be getting something done on those opportunities.

 

And odds are they'll persent themselves sometime.

 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

so capinegro,

 

you had no thoughts on the corn margin unchange or anything??

 

thx

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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: Bear hibernate

Corn margins meaning exchange margins?? If so I think there way to high. The last 3 weeks ranges 3 weeks ago 14.25 cents, report week 14 cents and this week 16.50 cents. 4 week high 446.25 and low 415.50 wow. What do u want them to be increased??

 

 

 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

I am also taken aback, so to speak, as to why they are so high, and why cmegroup didn't lower corn margin when they lowered wheat and soy.

 

as an open minded trader/analyst --- all things must be considered -- including changing or static initial exchange margin requirements.

 

i'm simply wondering out loud why cmegroup sees DECREASED risk/volatility in wheat and soy, but sees potential extreme volatility in corn ahead enough to not lower margins comensurate with (as you said) the last several weeks of trade.

 

i wondered what your thoughts on this matter are.....and if you haven't considered it??? money talks, but what is it saying in corn?

 

thanks

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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: Bear hibernate

Money talks alright. Maybe they see no sharp rallies and not worried about the large short corn position. Corn is dead and moving sideways to lower with the trend down. Big crops get bigger, watch the Jan. report for 2 bil crop. Also at this time SA weather is greattt. as Tony the Tiger would say. NOT the other tiger here (were 1 bil to high). lol

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

I apologize for not being more clear.

 

if they see no sharp "whatever" ( rallies, volatility) and they are not worried about large spec short, THEY WOULD LOWER THE MARGIN - YET THEY HAVE NOT.........

 

.........DO YOU COPY?

 

Thank you for clarifying -- we the people understand the cmegroup is communicating they DO have concern of volatility and large imbalance of $$$ allocation. 

thanks for your participation in our survey and God speed!!!

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

c-x they all knew about Obama's EPA selling out to big oil. The big money all knew it was coming. That is funny isn't it. Bush signed the RFS standards while being trashed by the dems for loving big oil, and yet the Big O sells out to them in a huge way for no reason.

 

So, if you were the CME, why would you lower margins going into a potential turbulent time. We will know Sunday night if their fear was warranted. Margins will start to come down quickly now that this is in the price.

 

btw...I have never seen lowering margin requirements as having a market impact. They always foretell the tops when increased, but not well connected with lows based on any data that I have seen.

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

Yeah what happened our
"green president"???
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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Bear hibernate

I will throw outt a good guess and say that 95% of pp acres in north iowa will go back to corn.  Interesting to look around after the corn is harvested and see many many acres of "black spots" i n tilled corn fields. these spots counted as planted, but produced zero.  zip. None. Oh yeah, better than expected yields  but the zeros pulled down field averages.

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