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Senior Contributor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

    If we are all still in busssiness after this bs waiting game,it has been my thoughts for about 6 years that 2014 will be the year that year the gold will be thown to the steets for a plate of some thing to eat!

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Way to early to write this crop off.....Also FWIW I expect a bearish report Friday, never know with the USDA though.....JP

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

On the flip side, with all due respect, I don't think it is wise to gamble on this being a trendline or near trendline crop at this point. I honestly don't think there is enough risk premium in the new crop prices at this point. I can't complain about cash prices too much, other than wishing I hadn't waited this long to market. However, I think the end users are going to be shocked when there isn't a huge influx of new crop hit the market in late August and early September. The southern states will have crop ready earlier than most, but this crop that is 4,5,6 or more weeks behind schedule in some of the midwest has an uphill battle to fight. If we get the heat units to hurry it along it will cook it. Hurrying at pollination and grain fill isn't a good scenario, either. I probably have a severe case of "backyarditis", but we all need to contribute to reach the predicted crop size. I have my doubts that MN, SD, ND, WI, MO, IA, and parts of IL can contribute all that is expected in this growing season. Things really have to be perfect from here on out to even come close.

I too, expect a bearish report. Just another chance for end users to get some bought before reality sets in. It might make their average look better to shareholders, and shareholders and stock values seem to be all anyone worries about these days. Pretty short sighted, and not much for long-term planning. 

Just my opinions. Your mileage may vary.

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Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Vr, your logic is flawed. The number three is not conspiring against American grain production. It's not even capable of thought. I'm sure whoever made the number had the foresight to predict the weather thousands of years later.

Coincidences happen. I am sure there are many years ending in 3 w good production.
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Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

I will stick with something that has a 50 or 60 year history until it proves me wrong.  Trend is your friend.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Sorry to hear of your misfortune llakmf. Success in this game is usually about surviving until you have a great year. Sounds like you are a survivor, congrats.

 

While the Tipton County guys talk a good game, our area rarely tassels before July 10th. Mostly, if you actually walk the fields because the non-dark black soil are 10 days behind every year, we would tassel around 7/20-7/27.  Of course the range is quite wide, 2011 tasseled in early August, last year July 7th.

 

This hot and wet August type weather is creating very rapid growth despite planting 2 weeks late, we will tassel at most 1 week late I would guess if any at all.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Yes, Vince, we planted the 160 following hog manure on June 8th. We finished the other 95% on May 20. About 50% of the corn in our township looks like the photo or better. The next 50% looks this good only 10 days later and 2 feet shorter so waist high.

We are the only idiots with hogs left, so obviously that 160 doesn't count, and our June corn never makes less than 165/170 so we aren't concerned about it (also have a big grain dryer :-)   )

 

Tipton county looks a lot rougher due to the flooding earlier in June, but that dirt is so good and the corn didn't die, so after a few weeks it very likely it will greeen back up(which it is doing btw). Just too early to tell up there, but it is Iowa dirt, so it has amazing resiliency.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Are my charts off?

Fall 12 CZ3 was 650, now 540.

The mkt is projecting a growing crop at this point , no?

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Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

So the crop is okay but were lifitng hedges why??

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Honored Advisor

Re: Been preaching disaster in 13 since last fall

Vr ---- Time and all thanks for entries.

 

sw is enjoying a balmy 105 for a few days and sending you the heat units on a 30+ mph wind.  Small corn is stressing because we are not rooted down like we normally would be this week.  Still a lot below 30 inches high.  We have a nice start though and probably enough time down here.  

 

Thanks again

 

 

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