cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Contributor

Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

This really not looking good for the 2019 corn crop. April 10th is the first plant date for a large chunk of the corn belt but April 14th only 3% had been planted. The next week only saw another 3% planted it was wet and cold. The next week ending April 28th gained 9% bring total planted to 15% well behind the five year average. By this time I expect most farmers were doing everything they could to get the crop in the field.  The Next week conditions were even worse and only 8% was gained on the planting progress. Now I would expect that nearly every farmer was in max overdrive. The week ending May 12th saw only 7% more corn planted. Condition improved over the next week with most states having 3 or 4 days suitable for field work. That week ending May 19th about the last day we could expect 100% yield farmers did get an additional 19% of the corn crop in. The next week was back to rain every 2or 3 days with very short planting windows. The result was the best farmers could do was 9% more planted. At 9% per week your looking at 11 weeks to plant the crop plus up to this time farmers have only been averaging 8.25% planted per week. The week ending June 2nd planting advanced another 9%. With 33% left to plant on June 2nd we must assume that all the well-drained easy to farm fields have been planted. That means what’s left are problem fields wet, odd shaped, small, scattered out, or just plain hard to farm. That would suggest that planting rate is not likely to speedup.
If you go with that as a best guess. That pushes planting out at least another four weeks. That’s past last date for late planting. Therefore, I can’t see there is any way but for a big chunk of the remaining 33% going to prevented plant.
Even if you made the wildly unrealistic assumption that all 33% would could get planted this week late planted corn has already reduced the expected crop by over 7%. So that 15-billion-bushel crop is now best case a 14-billion-bushel crop. I think its highly likely that another 1.5 billion bushels is going to be lost before this spring is done. That would put the crop down to around 12.5 billion bushels.
Let the bears put that in their pipes and smoke it.
Oh just a side note Springfield, IL shows rain 11 of the next 14 days and Cincinnati, OH shows rain 6 of the next 14 days.  I don’t see that as improving their planting conditions.

0 Kudos
11 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

Here in 2015, we got our corn planted in mid-May but then received 16 inches of rain in June.  It was some of the worst corn I've ever grown, yellow sickly, etc.    Some tried to add nitrogen in July when the rain finally stopped, I didn't bother,  but their crop wasn't any better.

  That earlier planted, rain on corn won't yield any better and maybe worse than the later planted stuff.

Honored Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

It`s a "supply driven" rally if you can call high 3 and low $4 corn a "rally" .  Intense Trump disliker, David Kruse says "imagine how high corn would be without the China tariffs?" and a few seconds later in his commentary Kruse says "higher corn prices will lead to livestock fed to lower weights, cutting demand"...Okay Smiley Very Happy what is it? Krusey, supply & demand work and whether the "bird is alive or dead" it`s Trump`s fault?  Gottcha. 

 

https://commstock.com/media/   

 

Image result for bird alive dead old man parable

 

 

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

200 bu * $3 = $600

150 bu * $5 = $750

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

12.5 billion bushels?    Anything over 10 billion will be a gift to endusers. 

Just like a farmer who missed selling at the high in the market............endusers, you had your chance to buy at bargain basement prices. 

Honored Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

The enduse crowd is a strange business.  If there`s a nickel worth of corn in a $4 box of Corn Flakes, I don`t see how even doubling the price of corn is any more than pencil dust.  Ethanol is more price sensitive, but there again strange strange strange I drive by shuttered E-plants and $3 corn, while back when corn was $7 they were being built...oh I know I know "RiN waivers", but seriously?    And the price of oil, when oil was $150 we had $4 gas...okay, now oil is $60 and gas is $2.50....say what?? Gas should be below $2!  But from the ethanol angle it does better with high priced oil as we all do $2,000 gold, $5 corn ...$4 gas but we could afford it. 

 

Ethanol, there`s the DDG angle, high priced corn makes those products higher, then the E-15 coming on. It just seems too many of the enduser businesses are modeled on selling cheap, which is fine, trouble is though they cut too much of their costs on the farmer`s end of it.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

"higher corn prices will lead to livestock fed to lower weights, cutting demand" -- Kruse

Is there any sense or logic to that statement?  I suppose cutting demand might mean less corn fed, but only to that steer.  As long as that pen gets refilled the same day corn demand does not go down. And maybe feeder cattle demand goes up to keep the line moving.

But cutting demand could mean cutting demand for Beef..... but the logic gets worse sliding off that direction....smaller cuts means more steers per refer.  So buy more feeders.... 

It was probably just "off the top of his head filler" so he could get his "blame Trump" statement on this website, knowing it would be well received.  Those subliminal messages work better with pictures.   So send Mr Kruse to the corner after he stomps the mud off his gummischuhes to write "I hate DT 20 times on the (neutral colored) board.  A true subliminal message.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Best case corn crop 12.5 billion bushels

Kruse is full of baloney ...but still I listen to him  Smiley Happy  His hatred of the president is so ridiculous that "the tide is high, that`s Trump`s fault The tide is low, that`s Trump`s fault"    "Without Trump we`d be selling $10 corn all planted on April 20th. It`d be fed to 1 ton steers and 400lb butcher hogs and free Bubbleup & rainbow stew under a sky of blue".  

Veteran Contributor

Re:You're assuming the pen gets filled......

You forget, there is a finite supply of feeders and no matter how fast you put them through lot eventually you'll run out. And  if you feed the total supply of  feeders to a lighter weight, the total amount of beef will be less.

   Unless of course, you bring in more feeders from Mexico but soon enough there will be a 25% tariff on those, so feeding high priced corn to high priced feeders doesn't look so good either.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Re:You're assuming the pen gets filled......

Okay folks ,here’s the deal. I don’t claim to be the sharpest pencil in the drawer but I’m confused. For weeks or months we’ve heard how we have so much grain it will be the proverbial millstone around our necks. The only way out is if China resumed buying. Now all of a sudden (actually it was a slow process) the price goes (close) to where we all thought it should have been and we’re worried about demand destruction -whatever that is. And the meager supply needs to be rationed. Okay fine let’s ration demand. If someone needs to go without I’d rather it be China than my local enduser, be it Cattle, hogs, ethanol, or even chicken 🐓. But lets use up all that low protein wheat that we’ve been sitting on for years. No need for the livestock to go hungry even if we’re short of corn. What about the old saying that the cure for low price is low price. Conversely the cure for high price is high price. BTDT.  Rinse and Repeat. What do y’all think?