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Re: Best example yuo'll ever see.

You have to realize how these markets work today.


I am not kidding when I tell you that there are in use computer programs that scan reports and press releases, Fed minutes etc. upon release, looking for key words and then try to execute trades faster than anyone else can.


And in that regard it is like I told someone yesterday- it is Ken Jennings vs. Watson and you ain't no Ken Jennings.


I can't say that they specifically target grains but grains are 100% linked to the overall risk trade in the short term anyway. That is exactly what happened in everything yesterday.


I don't know how an analyst captures that.


If you want to contend that ultimately physical supply and demand have out I won't argue with you although I believe that distortions extend beyond just very short term time frames and you may only be right in the very long term.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Best example yuo'll ever see.

Time, I admire your confidence.  Last time I told God my plans, he laughed.  Being wrong on the timing, Time, can be the most expensive thing.  You can be right on the trend, but wrong on the time and still be broke. 


Listening to the news, the troubles with Pakistan and the rest of the middle east;  Do you really believe we are going to go back to more dependence on imported oil and slow down the use of ethanol?


Since corn is not a big factor in the price of food,  seems it still has room to the upside with more weather problems.


This link was posted on another site, but it was eye opening to me.  Corn is only 1.5% of the cost of food.


My thanks to our Ag Sec'y for a well written article. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Best example yuo'll ever see.

Well there is one. This farmer has been doing the math on project yields for the 2012 crops and the numbers look very favorable.


How to lock them in with contracted physical corn and beans or go the futures route. How many times have we been able to contract new beans at $12.50  16 months in advance?  $6 corn may soon be available for october 2012 producing well over a $1000 per acre gross. Especially if you bought the acres for less than that.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Best example yuo'll ever see.

Krafty...have you looked into Cargill's new "Daily Floor Plus".


As a producer, it is a great way to take advantage of the tremendous volatility in the options. For selling the first 25% of 2012, which everyone should do on this weather spike higher, it is a great tool. Check into it, yes you are on the hook for another 25% IF the market trades above a very high level in Oct 2012. That is why you would use this tool on the first 25%, and allocate the IF extra 25% to the last 25% we would want to sell.


Of course, you are on the hook to the Big C and their very aggressive grading standards and fees.

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Re: Best example yuo'll ever see.

If 2011 is a multi year high why would you invest in 7K land at this point in time if I recall from one of your previous posts. Don't see the logic unless you are extremely liquid or its that once in a life time opportunity.

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