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Senior Advisor

Re: on the fert prices

at some point there`ll be full fertilizer barges up the entire Mississippi with no where to unload,

 

Shaggy - I would n't count on that - They read also - and they can play the game as good as anybody - they will buy as need be - if it go's up so be it - they will just pass it on , they can controll there inventory pretty well - the over run is at your local plant - thats why they are pushing the fall app . to controll there  loss

 

Red - lol I enjoy reading your posts - but remember - it takes longer to build back up than to take away  : )

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Senior Advisor

Re: on the fert prices

What are you tieing me to ECIN? You've included me in your last comment on this thread but I wasn't involved with the discussion. Either you've got me confused with someone else or I'm a little slow.
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Senior Advisor

Re: on the fert prices

Sorry Shag - lol I got you confussed with the other bs.er - BA  lol   I will try and do better next time Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Shagg, what we going to do with ol Ken, he thinks we're a couple bsers? Smiley Happy

Ken, it takes one to know one. Smiley Happy
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Red you are one sided on your thinking. .it's great to save money on inputs but you are forgetting to market your corn in a decent manner on the flip side. That rediculous idiot that paid $$250 bag for good seed corn(as you constantly refer to) probably also sold his 13 crop for $6.50/bushel and 14 and 15 are pry both sold around $5. There are many economics on both sides of the coin on every crop and a producer needs to manage all of them. I plant all pioneer and get good discounts but am planning to talk them down even more. Walking my fields and seeing the huge size of the ears is putting a damper on thinking of switching to a cheap company. Switching to a cheap seed is alot riskier than switching to the cheap chemicals, etc
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Well I don't know if I can agree with the statement about selling 3 years into the
Future. I know of no advisory service advocating going that far out, due to thin
Market, and all the potential margins, plus
That is a long time out.
Look at these numbers:
2014 Dec corn. 363
2015. 405
2016. 416
2017. 4.18

Beans
2014. Nov. 1025
2015. 1040
2016. 1016
2017. 1004

Kc wht
2015. July. 646
2016. 652
2017. 630



I know these prices are not nice to see, but
Would we be willing to sell out that far?

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

note on need to fertilize

we used to have a nearby farm management outfit that did a yearly test plot on corn and soybean hybrids, and they had one plot where they compared corn yields on a strip that never got any potash or phosphurous...only NH3. THe land started out with high levels of P and K, and after 20 years, it was still yielding the same as the nearby strips with routine maintenance additions, even as the levels per test results delcined each year.

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Advisor

Re: note on need to fertilize

I certainly don't have any problem with cutting P and K below maintenance amounts when economics dictate, particularly on fields with decent soil tests. Best is to band and yes, you can maintain optimum output a very long time and on high CEC soils and see very slow movement in soil tests.

 

Only rub is on cash rented ground. Share landlords ought to see the equal logic and benefit but some don't.

 

As I laid out in survival plan pre-2014- generic herbicides, non-GMO seed, zone tillage in 30" rows, sub-maintenance P and K in a band, side-dress NH3.

 

A part of the question still remains unanswered, though. That is the whole APH matter and if we're going to launder farm subsidies through crop insurance then is it paramount to buy yield with inputs even as they approach breakeven?

 

Could be that the corps that wrote the Farm Bill puyt us in a huge box (those nice fellers wouildn't do that, would they?) with the only hope being that they'll use their influence to buy a future bailout for the poor farmers.

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Advisor

Re: note on need to fertilize

PS. As a matter of self respect, I for one refuse to show up in bib overalls to testify about the hardship on poor family farmers.

 

Let the corps find somebody else.

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