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Advisor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Ba I don't. By cutworm I mean western bean cutworm. It migrates further north every year in ontario and favors sandy soils... And some of mine. It's not super apparent but I can find them. All 3 year or more rotation

Nobody uses insecticides here like capture... And I would have to make modifications.

They are in the ears: same with flea beetles. I have never seen a flea beetle before. Bad news? They are in smart stax too, but smart stax doesn't protect. Anyways don't look too severe
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Senior Advisor

Not so fast!

The history of fertilizer prices has been that prices fall at a lagging rate when commodity prices fall. In other words, the price will not fall as fast as the commodity prices, creating a large deficit in the budget. I still remember in the late 90's charted the nutrient index against the price of wheat. When the spreadsheet graph appeared I couldn't figure out why only one factor was on the chart. Then I noticed a small forked tail at the end of the line. It was where the price of fertilizer rose faster than the price of the commodity. The lines were exactly the same til the end when fertiliizer price patterns changed.

 

Fertilizer is in the hands of too few entities to force them to compete against each other. They have their agreements, from Belarus to the US. You will never see fertilizer prices plunge due to competition. And of course, there is new demand. Most of the fertilizer is bought by government entities around the world. Like India, Brazil and others. They buy by the millions of tons at a time.

 

We are the 'residual buyers'. There will be no relief that compares with the price of a commodity.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Two things

Brown bag seed

Nh3 made with wind power
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Honored Advisor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Cheaply, it is called, " stranded wind" has been talked about to use ALL the wind in the Dakota's where there is all kinds of wind and no transmission lines. 

 

It can be made out of natural gas cheaper and should be made out of all that gas just being burned off in N Dakota and Montana. (Flared off).

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Veteran Advisor

Why not both?

ND could become the go-to location for NH3 production.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Why not both?

I can think of a lot worse places we get it and from a lot farther away.

 

One relatively small nh 3 pipeline from there to say Burlington, Iowa, with terminals along the way, would carry away many megawatts equivalent and or billions of therms of natural gas equivalents all in a form that is easy to pipe and is used in great amounts twice a year.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Why not both?

Fellows - to me - it's not about cheap power or gas to make it - This problem all started back in the 70's 80's with NH3 - The problem as usually was with the gov. and there regulations to build a new plant  - as the old plants cost to much to run vs new plants in foreign countrys that had cheaper NEW plants - Plus very cheap gas - then why build one here to lose money at ?  That then puts us at the mercy of them - it was not all the fault's of the U.S. companies that made it - as Gas has came down here there are new plant's starting up - there is a big one on the Ohio river ( Indiana Side ) being built now .

 

Pal hit the nail on the head - about not going down as fast as crop prices - that pretty simple to figure out - they are working out there product that they brought at a higher price - they work in the higher price with the lower one to TRY and come out with a  average where they still make money =  were on the bottom of the pile - everybody has they fingers in the pie and when it gets to us - sometimes there is just not  any left . Like being around Hobbie after his wife fixes a hot - fresh rasberry pie = belt has to be let out 2 holes - lol

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Veteran Advisor

on the fert prices

you guys go ahead and buy up the high priced stuff if you choose to, and let the new, low priced stuff work through the system so that I cany buy it at a price that makes sense to me. The only fertilizer input that I have to buy to grow corn for the next few years on my fertile fields is NH3, and by sidedressing that next June I can control that expenditure, too. Like I said previously, I will put fertilizer back in the "bank" only  when the price warrants it. I worked hard to get ahead of the game, and I plan on keeping my gains.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Big Bang of the Bull Market.

Farnerinontario..
I had a Long and thoughtful answer all typed out to your August 30th post about growing your own barley seed.....then my battery went dead on my phone and erased it! Aargh! So, in a nutshell (and perhaps I will take the time at a later time to be more specific), yes barley can be grown and kept for seed by a farmer because it is not a hybridized plant like modern corn varieties....GMO or not. However, in my business I have farmers coming and going with a particular barley variety and just as frequently a new variety will come down the pipeline with only a single seed source. It has to be bought through the proprietor of the seed at least initially. Most new varieties are not public (like Alba); meaning, normally, you can grow your own seed from your initial purchase, but you can't sell it for seed or give any to your neighbor....legally anyway. More importantly, in my business, many highly specific barleys are grown with specific end uses. A few examples: black hulless barleys for use in multigrain cereal mixes, hulless white barley for making barley flour, large kernel feed barley for use in dairy sprouted forage operations, malting varieties with highly specific beta glucan levels and then there is just plain feed barley. Unless a farmer is growing only feed barley, it is next to impossible to keep your seed stock to the purity level necessary for its end use for more than a year or two. Inevitably some stray cereal grain seed will contaminate his hulless black barley and I will get a call about who grows the seed stock for a given variety. With oddball varieties of black barley, there may not be a seed source with any volume, which is why I am forced to maintain seed stock myself at times.....just to be able to supply new growers or allow experienced growers to replenish the purity of their barley variety.
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Honored Advisor

Re: on the fert prices

On the "other site" there`s a infomercial by a fertilizer company on the benefits of "fall applied fertilizer"...I had to laugh, it could have an alternate title of "Help!  take this high priced s**t off our hands before $3 corn sinks in.".   Smiley Very Happy

 

Yeah Yeah yeah I know all the bennefits of spreading in the fall...drier, more time, expense deduction for next year, less compaction yada yada yada.  But, if $3 corn brings less acres and everyone goes Scotch on their fertilizer, realizing that swinging for the upper deck doesn`t cut it in this environment ...at some point there`ll be full fertilizer barges up the entire Mississippi with no where to unload, they`re in the business to sell, no different than a guy holding 2 years of corn "expecting the market owes him a profit", he eventually caves.

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