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Veteran Advisor

Big wheels roll'n

Here are how things are looking from the Ponderosa

(All new crop bids)

Local
Corn -60 343
Milo -70 333
Beans -120 835
Wht -35 441

If we go to the area terminal 38 miles away
Wht -10 463
Corn -40 361
Bean -90 864

If we go visit SW at Garden City 208 miles
Wht -55 421
Corn -10 393
Milo -65 338
Beans -130 825

If we would go to the nearest bean crusher 97 miles
Beans -50 9.04

Lastly, we could go to ""the terminal"", Kansas City.
Only 211 miles...I don't know who I dislike so
Bad, to put them in the front seat of a truck and
Send down there. I was down there this week
To find out how much longer my internal organs
Will function...it is nuts !!
Corn -05 398
Beans -50 905
Wht +25 501 (yes, that's right a PLUS 25 basis)

So... What's we do ?
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25 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

I'll bite but I need 3 numbers to do a reasoable analysis

1. 5 yr avg yields for your 3 crops

2. Land rental rates (avg not the going broke moron rate)

3. Land Values (not the sky high #, just an avg recent sale)

 

On the surface, I would say your farm should be one

of those that go in to the new CRP acres. No local demand

means you are growing a product no one needs. Kind of

like a rotary dial phone manufacturer  :-)

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

gpt  -  WAS  the  WORLD  MORE  DEMANDING  a  COUPLE  YEARS  BACK,  or  is  the  WORLD we  are  feeding  on  a DIET  - ?  

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Senior Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

Demand has continued to grow at a very steady and healthy pace.

Supply has exploded because of increased acreage and the industry burning

technology and carbon to grow more $3 corn. Well, that and Mary

Poppins weather of course.

It is certainly not a demand issue. When demand finally cracks sometime

in the next 5 years, then we will really get to appreciate the ARC/PLC floors :-)

 

We can't change the oversupply problem, just try to live amongst it.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

So  selling  $3.50  priced  corn  here  to export to an -  $8.oo /  day  ( as another posted stated )  being  an  up-hill  challenge  - maybe  ?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

cheapo  -  cash  in  your  short  positions  on  the  cheeze  - macaroni  company  -  as  those  mergers  can  be  trick-E ,   then   use  that   $$$  to  help  buoy   the  ship  - maybe ?

 

That  basis  you  are  talking  about  in  wheat,  could  be  financial  straining on  Mack  & CheeZe  waLL  street  E- Leet - - - maybe ? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

Time is right    demand is growing world wide....    just not on your door step...................

 

specifically elcheapo ----- stop pretending you have a local market...... if the local coop can make 20 cents on your corn, 25 on your wheat, and 30 cents on your beans for only a 38 miles transfer. and still loose money........ theyre not a market ............ Consolidation was a sign of failure and failure to compete.  You cannot afford that middle man.  Times change always.....

 

Best markets

corn.(milo unless export) -------(-10) market is sw. your right....no question and there is 30 cents more than you quoted if it goes to ethanol or a feedlot... instead of dumping it back into the coop system. 

 

Beans ......(-50).. only two markets all along......nothing new......  less than 100 miles from the a market that pays you 70 cents per bu more than home.... this is your market.  

 

Wheat ----- (-10)  a gain of 25 cents for only 38 miles.  If your not doing that your ignoring that you live close to the best market in ks....

 

Those are your markets, If they are too far away from you to deal with then your area does not care about agriculture any more, because it hasn't supported those industries that use your production.......welcome to kansas run by Teachers..........Smiley Happy...........   and your too far north for cotton.

 

 

 

Sw lives in a great area that still supports agriculture.  The smells of meat processing, feeding, cattle and hog, dairy, and the constant flow of cattle busses on the highway is worth the 50-80 cent bonus we get for our grain.........We get it because we wanted it, needed it, and will do what other areas won't, to improve our economic future.   But elcheapo's area (still primarily agriculture based is against Tyson in their area) and most of kansas votes against agriculture, its largest industry, over and over.  So the grain corn and milo market move farther away and there is a cost to our producers that will eventually close out farming in some areas.

 

We get excited to sell so much corn to Mexico, the trains pass through almost daily and feed demand that we vote against..... Kansas and maybe the midwest pays a price for our choices nationally and locally.  We want selfishly, vote selfishly, live selfishly and for some reason have lost the ability to do simple math or care for our neighbors.  Teachers lead the way to some of the most foolish decisions in Topeka, form the biggest lobby and produce very little in economic return or tax revenue.  And don't want to live in dying towns.  Selfish selfish selfish.

 

Reading recommendation   ------- "What do you do with a chance?"   by Kobi Yamada

Tops my list on self help issues.  not joking.......

 

We wonder where the future is for our grandkids............ It is hard to imagine Kansas without agriculture....  Do we leave them a chance?

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

We'll sw, your basicly right. This area has a problem
Of ""looking out for #1""...we are a diversified crop
Area, that have moderate yeilds. Many feel the
Coops were there to help...at first they were....
But they got out of control...hard to justify a
Cooperative manager taking better than 200k
Home, that doesn't either do the grain, fertilizer or
Chem.
There is talk, but doesn't go anywhere...there are
Programs and resources available...but not
Used. I think a valid point could be made that
The current coops don't want a change . It
Would cut their bottom line
I know...I put together a proposal for a project
And asked the local coop to. Show it to the
Cooperative bank.....after a couple months, called
Them directly....they had heard nothing....and after
Visiting...the fellow said it sounded good. But I
Am only 1 man....and don't have several million
Just laying around.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

But your not quite right on the teachers....there is
An education ""industry""...school supply companies
From overpriced computers, sports equipment,
Bus companies, even contractors pushing new
Schools...even the lunch room....very little cooking
Done....you just heat at serve, and that's expensive.
The sports industry has went nuts....we quit building
Classrooms. But basketball courts...football
Fields....with astro turf...a running track that costs
$250,000 to resurface...baseball fields, now
Soccer fields ..golf...where the district pays a
Good amount for membership in the country club !!
And now year round pools !!!!
We are going broke to give little Johnny every chance.
But....what do we get...this week local TV week
Long story on dope.
Don't start in saying it's the Mexican kids....their
Mom's and dad's realize how good this country
And encourage their kids to take advantage of
Education, and maybe sports. In many Mexican
Homes, the kids respect and fear their folks.
I've had more than one teacher tell me, if
They have a problem with a Mexican kid,
They just need to tell the kid, they were going
To call their folks....things change rapidly,
Knowing what awaits them at home
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Senior Advisor

Re: Big wheels roll'n

Just give me a ballpark numbers for the 3 questions. Might surprise you with

the return volley.

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