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02-22-2019 12:04 AM
(All new crop bids)
Corn -60 343
Milo -70 333
Beans -120 835
Wht -35 441
If we go to the area terminal 38 miles away
Wht -10 463
Corn -40 361
Bean -90 864
If we go visit SW at Garden City 208 miles
Wht -55 421
Corn -10 393
Milo -65 338
Beans -130 825
If we would go to the nearest bean crusher 97 miles
Beans -50 9.04
Lastly, we could go to ""the terminal"", Kansas City.
Only 211 miles...I don't know who I dislike so
Bad, to put them in the front seat of a truck and
Send down there. I was down there this week
To find out how much longer my internal organs
Will function...it is nuts !!
Corn -05 398
Beans -50 905
Wht +25 501 (yes, that's right a PLUS 25 basis)
So... What's we do ?
02-22-2019 05:40 AM - edited 02-22-2019 07:38 AM
I'll bite but I need 3 numbers to do a reasoable analysis
1. 5 yr avg yields for your 3 crops
2. Land rental rates (avg not the going broke moron rate)
3. Land Values (not the sky high #, just an avg recent sale)
On the surface, I would say your farm should be one
of those that go in to the new CRP acres. No local demand
means you are growing a product no one needs. Kind of
like a rotary dial phone manufacturer :-)
02-22-2019 07:44 AM - edited 02-22-2019 07:45 AM
Demand has continued to grow at a very steady and healthy pace.
Supply has exploded because of increased acreage and the industry burning
technology and carbon to grow more $3 corn. Well, that and Mary
Poppins weather of course.
It is certainly not a demand issue. When demand finally cracks sometime
in the next 5 years, then we will really get to appreciate the ARC/PLC floors :-)
We can't change the oversupply problem, just try to live amongst it.
02-22-2019 09:25 AM
cheapo - cash in your short positions on the cheeze - macaroni company - as those mergers can be trick-E , then use that $$$ to help buoy the ship - maybe ?
That basis you are talking about in wheat, could be financial straining on Mack & CheeZe waLL street E- Leet - - - maybe ?
02-22-2019 12:31 PM
Time is right demand is growing world wide.... just not on your door step...................
specifically elcheapo ----- stop pretending you have a local market...... if the local coop can make 20 cents on your corn, 25 on your wheat, and 30 cents on your beans for only a 38 miles transfer. and still loose money........ theyre not a market ............ Consolidation was a sign of failure and failure to compete. You cannot afford that middle man. Times change always.....
corn.(milo unless export) -------(-10) market is sw. your right....no question and there is 30 cents more than you quoted if it goes to ethanol or a feedlot... instead of dumping it back into the coop system.
Beans ......(-50).. only two markets all along......nothing new...... less than 100 miles from the a market that pays you 70 cents per bu more than home.... this is your market.
Wheat ----- (-10) a gain of 25 cents for only 38 miles. If your not doing that your ignoring that you live close to the best market in ks....
Those are your markets, If they are too far away from you to deal with then your area does not care about agriculture any more, because it hasn't supported those industries that use your production.......welcome to kansas run by Teachers..................... and your too far north for cotton.
Sw lives in a great area that still supports agriculture. The smells of meat processing, feeding, cattle and hog, dairy, and the constant flow of cattle busses on the highway is worth the 50-80 cent bonus we get for our grain.........We get it because we wanted it, needed it, and will do what other areas won't, to improve our economic future. But elcheapo's area (still primarily agriculture based is against Tyson in their area) and most of kansas votes against agriculture, its largest industry, over and over. So the grain corn and milo market move farther away and there is a cost to our producers that will eventually close out farming in some areas.
We get excited to sell so much corn to Mexico, the trains pass through almost daily and feed demand that we vote against..... Kansas and maybe the midwest pays a price for our choices nationally and locally. We want selfishly, vote selfishly, live selfishly and for some reason have lost the ability to do simple math or care for our neighbors. Teachers lead the way to some of the most foolish decisions in Topeka, form the biggest lobby and produce very little in economic return or tax revenue. And don't want to live in dying towns. Selfish selfish selfish.
Reading recommendation ------- "What do you do with a chance?" by Kobi Yamada
Tops my list on self help issues. not joking.......
We wonder where the future is for our grandkids............ It is hard to imagine Kansas without agriculture.... Do we leave them a chance?
02-22-2019 04:42 PM
Of ""looking out for #1""...we are a diversified crop
Area, that have moderate yeilds. Many feel the
Coops were there to help...at first they were....
But they got out of control...hard to justify a
Cooperative manager taking better than 200k
Home, that doesn't either do the grain, fertilizer or
There is talk, but doesn't go anywhere...there are
Programs and resources available...but not
Used. I think a valid point could be made that
The current coops don't want a change . It
Would cut their bottom line
I know...I put together a proposal for a project
And asked the local coop to. Show it to the
Cooperative bank.....after a couple months, called
Them directly....they had heard nothing....and after
Visiting...the fellow said it sounded good. But I
Am only 1 man....and don't have several million
Just laying around.
02-22-2019 05:08 PM
An education ""industry""...school supply companies
From overpriced computers, sports equipment,
Bus companies, even contractors pushing new
Schools...even the lunch room....very little cooking
Done....you just heat at serve, and that's expensive.
The sports industry has went nuts....we quit building
Classrooms. But basketball courts...football
Fields....with astro turf...a running track that costs
$250,000 to resurface...baseball fields, now
Soccer fields ..golf...where the district pays a
Good amount for membership in the country club !!
And now year round pools !!!!
We are going broke to give little Johnny every chance.
But....what do we get...this week local TV week
Long story on dope.
Don't start in saying it's the Mexican kids....their
Mom's and dad's realize how good this country
And encourage their kids to take advantage of
Education, and maybe sports. In many Mexican
Homes, the kids respect and fear their folks.
I've had more than one teacher tell me, if
They have a problem with a Mexican kid,
They just need to tell the kid, they were going
To call their folks....things change rapidly,
Knowing what awaits them at home