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Advisor

Biggest trade deal ever to be signed in 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/what-is-rcep-asia-pacific-trade-deal-slated-to-be-worlds-largest-fta...

And like the numerous smaller bi- and multi-party deals that have taken place without the US while we've been off on a snipe hunt, we're out of it.

TPC would have been a good deal for agriculture, at least, although passing it would have been a heavy lift even if the President hadn't been intent on killing everything the previous administration had done. The diminished lib dems would have opposed (as they did NAFTA and China WTO) and there is the new populist wing on the right as well.

Oh well. Be glad that we're agriculture enjoys a more lavish social safety net than any other business. Back to being wards of the state for heaven knows how long.

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9 Replies
Advisor

Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/wall-street-worries-trump-may-have-oversold-likelihood-chin...

Meanwhile, trump just push back his threaten tariffs on European autos for another six months.

 Trump's worn out the tariff threat.

  And the other thing is, this Hong Kong situation could very blow up and get in the way of any trade deal.  Not that I don't sympathize with the Hong Kong protesters,  just that it could very well complicate an already complicated situation.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

It’s called winning

Hope I’m still standing upright when they’re done winning 

Feel sorry for these young farmers 

And my RE taxes just keep increasing 

And we just keep exporting our wealth through foreign labor 

 

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Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

China will prbably want to avoid the Dec 15 round of tariffs so I'm guessing that they'll do some sort of Phase 1 deal that will include some agricultural products. The devil is in the details though, as nobody but out side has acknowledged the $40-50B number or given a timeline on that. 

Anyway, the hole is already dug and we've lost a lot of ground elsewhere.

The Chinese love Trump for a lot of reasons and will try to help him politically as much as they can without harming their own interests. They couldn't have dreamed of the unilateral surrender of US soft power or the disinterest in opposing their power moves in their home region. Trump just wants his deal, which he won't get- at least anything close to what was initially claimed.

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Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

On the "exporting our wealth for foreign labor" thing. I'll leave aside the considerations of that for a while.

But like when Ag was the #1 lobby for NAFTA and China WTO*, it is inescapable** that our Ag sector requires exports so it has always been interesting to me that Ag suddenly decided to hold hands with labor and sing Solidarity Forever.

Really can't have it both ways.

*at least in an astroturf fashion, with all the commodity groups and farm organizations lobbying heavily and maybe the other interests using farmers to show some grass roots support.

** there was a fever dream that we'd just burn everything up here (at least as far as commodity crops go) that was never going to happen. The ethanol boom was a one off and it was going to take luck just to hold the gains. As we've recently seen.

 

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Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

As far as "negotiations would be better done in private".

Yes. Playing to the domestic political audience on an almost daily basis is not constructive to getting a deal.

Mr. Art of the Deal's history confirms that he'd never been a good negotiator at all, other than not paying his creditors.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

It is the Rick and Dave show....have fun reinforcing your delusions. You guys must be getting mail order herbs from Colorado  :-)

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Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

Anything you'd like to take factual issue with?

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Advisor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

Ag in a recession (with some aid to compensate), manufacturing contracting, coal dying.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

NY Fed Nowcast currently has Q4 GDP at .7%. Granted it is early and data can improve but I wouldn't get too invested in whistling past that graveyard. The tax cuts were a failure in terms of delivering the sort of sustained growth that was advertised and the costs are rising sharply above the estimates that were advertised. 

If there was much traction to be had from rate cuts you'd assume it would be showing up in the stats- the market had already cut long rates to extremes and they're now actually rising*. 

Massive Fed repos are probably helping somebody, Wall Street primarily, I'd guess.

*Maybe never really know what the deal was on the extreme drop in long rate and all the attendant hadwringing over an inverted yield curve. My best gues is that there was just a huge bubble in bonds driven by the POTUS and Co. shouting from the rooftops that they would force the Fed to cut and everybody piled in early.

Now there's an unwind in that very crowded trade.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Re:Speaking of trade deals, here's a nice little analysis of the situation.

Let’s here your considerations I know in my locale it has increased 15 to 20 fold in less than 10 years and all it costs me is taxes law enforcement updating schools and putting an end to family farms

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