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Veteran Advisor

Black Swan after Black Swan

Farmers waiting for a post-ASF bid in the market waited for a post-Trade dispute bid and now are waiting for a post-Coronavirus bid. I pieced together some ideas on this from my sources in this story.

 

Full story: If it's not one thing it's another for farm markets.

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

7 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

Mike  -  One   more,    post  ''  circuit  breaker  ''   bid  - Smiley Frustrated  

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

k-289,

 

Ooops. I forgot that one. I'm sure there are others too. The black swans seem to be lining up. Let's hope planting season goes well.

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

Politics and social media sort of amplify Black Swans.  Just a lot of drama in the world, top watched movies on Netflix are "Contagion" and "Outbreak".   People have had it good for so long that they`re always certain that "this one is the Big One!" ...kind of like if you haven`t paid taxes for years and then one day there`s a letter from the IRS in your mailbox, it might be something, it might be nothing but you won`t know til it gets opened.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

I hope we get a good growing season too.   So we can get are ldp payments next year cause that is were we will be 1.80 corn😲

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Senior Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

Quote: "For soybeans, if the experts are correct and the coronavirus subsides with spring weather, the narrative of China needing to return its soymeal imports back to 94.0 million tons, and its gross domestic product returning, protein consumption returns to trend growth, the Chicago trader says."

  "Corvid-19 subsides with spring weather"?  That's just plain wishful thinking.  "China needing to return its soy (meal?) imports back to 94 million tons"?  Maybe, but given the current economic situation and increased Brazil production, why back to 94 and why should it be US beans?  Historically, once we lost our wheat market in the 1980's, we never got it back.

 I hate to say I told you so, but three years ago, when I first began to warn of what would happen(not here) if we went to war with China, I repeatedly said this would happen and in the main, I haven't been wrong.

  You see, economies are fragile things that need to be carefully cultivated and protected.  You don't unnecessarily impose shocks because you never know when a real black swan shock will come.

And Mike, you didn't mention the follow-on effect of reduced gasoline consumption (due to quarantine, etc)  leading to reduced ethanol blending and less corn grind.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

So, you "warned us this would happen" just not here.  Well that`s convenient.  Whaaaaat?

 

Rick wrote:  

I hate to say I told you so, but three years ago, when I first began to warn of what would happen(not here) if we went to war with China, I repeatedly said this would happen and in the main, I haven't been wrong.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Black Swan after Black Swan

IS   the  harvest  of  GREED  up  on  U. S.  - ?  

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