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Bleah year shaping up, perhaps better to come

It isn't over, particularly for beans- August rain will dictate that.


But as it stands now about all you can say from the positive side is that trims to output globally are going to tighten grain stocks up a fair bit and leave better prospects for a future rally. 


For this year it looks like a lot of places may have yields somewhere between APH and their insurance threshold, which is a big nothingburger except for the prospect of some modest CCPs.


Doesn't look like holding unhedged inventory paid, and harvest delivery bids never got too interesting.


Like I said, other than the unlucky or those on the ropes, just another nick of a year, with perhaps better prospects to come.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Bleah year shaping up, perhaps better to come

Way to early in the year to make such a statement. It is very similar to 2003  (14 years ago) so far.

Beans could easily be 82% of the highest ever national yield (33.9/41.4).  This year 82% of 52.1

would be 42.6. At 42.6 carryout is effectively zero...


And this is before the trade even contemplates what the Sept crop report says about yields of corn. You know below normal rain and above normal temps just don't make for average yields on corn. Or, same on way above normal rain, not good for the whole farm average.

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