cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Blood in the Water

Pulled this off of a blog, this was just this morning by a farmer from N Central Iowa
"I am driving down from Mason City, IA to Des Moines now. Taking my time and getting off some of the exists off I-35 to look at the crops. A lot of, and I mean a lot of the corn has shut-down, the beans are still hanging on, but barely. The crops are a disaster, and this is right though the best and highest CSR rated cropland in Iowa. Oh boy, Iowa will be down yield-wise, BIG-TIME!!!!
I don't want to alarm you guys, but this is the worst I have ever seen crops in Iowa. The USDA is saying a 141bu Iowa state-wide yield. I will wash everyones truck if Iowa gets a 141bu state-wide yield. I am thinking a further drop of 30bu down to 111bu is more correct. This is another drop of 450 Million bushels right there in Iowa, pretty down close to a 1/2 BILLION bushel adjustment just for Iowa. 450 Million bushels is a helluva alot of lost corn production just for the state of Iowa. I could be wrong, but after looking at the crops just 40 miles south of me, I see no reason to rush and price anymore 2012 crop corn at this time. A 1/2 Billion corn adjustment down for Iowa would wipe-out a helluva alot of the 2012 to 2013 carry-over I think."
I visited with a BTO in my area yesterday on a corn silage pile he was making. There was a lot of corn in the pile. I asked why chop corn with that much grain. His answer was that there was some strips on the contour of the hill that had burned up and that those were the areas he was leaving for the adjuster. The field would have made at least 100 average.
During the conversation we talked about the price of corn and he said he thought he would keep a bunch back for next summer. They never do that. He also said if I did not misunderstand him that they have had to roll contracts from TWO years ago to this year. OK what about the last years contracts? Also said they have notified their "buyer" they would be short this year too. ????????? They were chopping 100 bu corn. Said they were such good suppliers of this entity that it would be OK.
I'm just guessing here but they are probably locked into $4 corn and have every intention of NOT fulfilling those agreements till it gets back down to those levels. The insurance co is going to get hosed the buyer is getting the dirty end of the stick and the "grower" is going to get the best of both ends of the deal.
WOW Have I ever be naive on how to work the system. No need to pass up good prices just because you made bad marketing choices the last few years.
 
Now back to the Blood in the Water thing.
This crop just keeps getting smaller and more and more farmers with mostly uncontracted supplies are in the mood to wait this thing out till spring and wait for the end user to either go mammary glands up or pay up. China may NOT forgive themSmiley Wink
84 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Tell the guy, we will supply the garden hose. Ask him if he wants a shammy too, to really shine those pickups. 🙂

 

Mike

0 Kudos
Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

Hobby it sounds like the BTO needs to be held accountable. I doubt if we could get away with doing business like that... In regards to the guy from NCIA's blog, the corn in Iowa should be in the dent stage. Dry conditions shouldn't hurt that corn to much now. The beans may take a hit without late season rains but the corn should make better than he thinks. Here in the eastern cornbelt we wont see much corn this year but we could see an average to above average soybean crop with the rains we have been getting lately.

0 Kudos
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

In an inverted market structure, you do not get to deliver next year at the same price you have it sold for this year....

 

you have to eat the inverse....in this case, about $1.70, plus a likely service charge to cover the buyer's cost of having to replace this year's corn in a high basis environment.....

 

so that $4 corn could easily be $2,00--2.25 corn next year.....THAT is the risk to the buyer....just like it was back in 1996 when things started to come unraveled with the HTA..

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

Blacks: the point is/was the the corn crop really is toasted and NO recovery/improvement is or can be made. Reread his post out load to yourself.

I have seen corn worse than he described south of Ft Dodge Iowa and burned up corn NE of Humboldt Iowa two and a half weeks ago.

 

Here is a post from a farmer NE of Omaha, Ne 25 or so miles into Iowa. This post was put up yesterday about what happened to what he had been posting as what he thought would be 130 bpa corn.

 

" I have been getting less pessimistic lately about my corn. Today I noticed it going flat. No wind hardly at all today. Drive by in the morning it is fine , at noon it is 2 ft tall, and at supper it is nailed to the ground! I guess that guarantees an insurance claim!"

 

The crop is getting smaller by the day. It is doing the same thing in parts of many fields 100 miles east of him in my area too. It is looking like the plant cannibalized it's self to try to make an ear. Just bending over right at ground level and falling into a twisted mess.

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

"Hobbyfarmer,

 

Tell the guy, we will supply the garden hose. Ask him if he wants a shammy too, to really shine those pickups. :smileyhappy:"

 

This crop is not "put to bed yet" 141 is getting harder to attain by the day" MT was more right than anybody else and may be proven to have been too high too. The kernals are shallow and will be lighter in test wt. Remember "Droughts are funny that way"?

0 Kudos
bullrider685114
Veteran Contributor

Re: Blood in the Water

Crop insurance meeting today WC Indiana featured a market analyst that basically said..." do not get caught up in the noise about this short crop"! China has record inventory according to the August 10th WASDE report and will use it on the world market. The only shortages are confined here to the US. He stated that the market very soon will be trading the producer mentality to start planning for '13 cohonies out!!! Corn and beans. Wheat is already being shipped in th the northern tier states as a feed replacement for corn. In other words sell...sell now... theses prices are too good to pass up!!! He asked a guy in the crowd how many times in his carreer he could have got $8.00 for his corn and $16.00? His answer (sheepishly) never..... my response was, adjusted for inflation.... or not??? Drink the Kool aid boys if you feel like it. This sucker ain't over and the market is in denial. End users you may get alot of smutt ridden corn, maybe some aflatoxin corn below 300 ppb... or we may have to take back to the field spread it like fertilizer and you get nothing!

What is the price discovery for good, clean no.2 corn or beans???

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

Bullrider: If I read your post right you are calling BS on this "expert"?

 

Your implied " at what price is good a good quality crop" available statement is a mouth full. There are livestock producers from Memphis Mo calling up here (130) miles looking for corn to feed their livestock.

 

That dudes statement is only half of the equation, I would ask him when was the last time it took $200,000- dollars to buy a new medium sized tractor etc. How about that $6000 to $12,000 land to grow that crop on.

 

This is the year if I have an above average condition crop, it should take an above quoted price to buy it. Quality at a price. I still have a small amount of non GMO corn in the bins that should have just a little more value now than a month ago.

0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

Hobby. You said after your little crop tour 10 days ago you were going to sell some.....did you.....and now all of a sudden a disaster......

Wow
0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Blood in the Water

No if you remember the sale was dependent on the markets not "falling out of bed" they did and I didn't.

 

If you also remember I was the one that was in disagreement with the management of this site at planting of NOT selling a crop I hadn't raised yet.

 

I am a charter member of the

 

G row

B in

S ell it crowd.

 

I am getting more contrary as the years go by and one of the lessons taught early in my life that I latched onto was the bible story of "put away in the good years for the bad years to come".  With all the problems with the weather I have had over the years and now this world wide weather event AND the fooling around with the currency issues (QE whatevers), I do not mind having some of my "currency" denominated in bushels instead of numbers on colored slips of paper.  

 

As a member of the "GBS" group I am still "in the game"

 

Until my new crop black layers and I feel confortable and confident of a harvest, some in reserve is not a bad thing. My thoughts are looking into next spring and summer at the real posiblilty of a tremendious disconect between CBOT and cash. With cash the hands down winner in July, Aug.

 

My corn is just starting into dent. And there is a good crop out there on the corn here on my farm, but the beans need a drink to be a bin buster. This may be a very hard crop to buy the last 25% of out of very tight farmers hands. I'm betting the first 25 to40% is sold out of the field from last springs "sell it now before it becomes $3.50 bu) crowd following the experts over the "buffalo jump."

 

 

My memory of your first challenge was whether it would be a 166bu crop or a 140ish bu crop and I bet on the 140. It now appears to be 100 or less based on PLANTED acres.  

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos