cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Saw discussion on the "other site" about this.   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-07/hedge-funds-make-record-bearish-corn-bets-on-supply-commodi...    right or wrong funds think 14 billion is on the way.  My guru said way back that we only needed a 146 national yield to fill all the holes this year.  Barring a early frost or raining frogs, we should get more than that and the funds ain`t no dummies.

0 Kudos
11 Replies
Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Thats OK...Being dumb is  skin deep, Stupid is bone deep! Chicago might want to step out into THEIR back yard. Trip from WC Indiana up thru the gut of Illinois. NOT IMPRESSED!!! Lots of Nitrogen loss. Corn firing half way up stalk. Holes in fields of 1 acre or more. Very uneven Soybeans. Too many reports of fallow land not planted. Fringe areas will not make up the difference. With all of the new silver tanks in the country side those that did dodge the bullet will change the tide and become the price makers instead of takers. Keep talkin it down, at some point it will come home to roost!!!

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Member

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Would this be the "hope" or "fear" stage of grain marketing? Yes, we can lock our crop in the bin, but every day that grain isn't sold, the marketing window closes one day. It has to come out eventually and everyone knows that. What we really need to be worried about may be next year, if we plant similar acreages to corn, and there's no reason to believe we won't. Put trendline yields, or God forbid, record yields on top of a huge acreage and we could very well be staring at a 15.0-15.5 billion bushel corn crop for the 2014 crop season. No 5 billion bushel ethanol demand surge coming again. Could get very, very ugly. 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Tell me why we would plant as many acres again as we supposedly did this year.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

BA,

the funds ain't Einsteins either - they just go in the direction the water's ALREADY flowin' and will add juice while the chirping birds are still singin' - now the commercials are smart or I should say the true "strong hands."

 

c-x-1

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Because, low prices stimulate more production because more bushels mean more to sell. Gross revenues give a better shot to the P&Lstatement.

 

Farmers haven't realized yet that the market will pay more for less.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Member

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

The acres won't lay idle, so what would you plant? More beans? There may be a little switching, but it would be minimal. It would take a significant shift, ie 8-10%, to really affect the marketplace and agriculture cannot pull off that level of supply management. Won't happen.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts


farsider wrote:
Tell me why we would plant as many acres again as we supposedly did this year.


Because we are farmers and that is what we do.  The same reason teachers teach and ball players play ball.  What else would we do with the acres?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Big crops to come------- more acres and bigger yields. This one is not important, the next one will be bigger----------------------------- It is the horse we are riding and it is the answer to all questions.  This is the usda and your call is important to us.

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

CX, I desperately want the Bulls to be right, however as a farmer one has to be realistic.  And that might mean not holding out for impractical prices, planting $150 conventional seed, cutting back on everything that made sense when corn was over $6 at least some point in your maketing year.

 

I talked to my "source" in Indiana the other morning and he comfirms for the most part across east of the mighty Missisip things look darned good. I still maintain that we won`t break 13 billion, but right now this "14 billion talk"  has a powerfull placebo effect, that can hang on until next spring when USDA proclaims a "record crop in 2014". 

 

If enough people believe something that nessesarily isn`t true, they can create an alternate universe where reality can be postponed longer than one might think.  And good or bad, that`s what we all have to deal with.  I would bet that if corn is taken to the 3`s they can kiss goodbye, probably 10 million fring acres of corn...it  just wouldn`t pencil out at those prices.  Maybe, if it`s hammered down too far a bidding war for acres next spring will have to occur?

 

I am a fundamentalist, I only look at charts to show where we`ve been, not where we`re going.

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/pricecn.asp  see, as sweet as it`s been, the last 3 years has just been abnomally good.  Maybe Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will print us some money, but it`s gonna take something like that  Smiley Happy