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Veteran Contributor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

Don't count this crop yet long way to go and still behind normal and if you think it's made I would think again. The weather is acting like its month ahead and I wouldn't be surprised we get a frost month early. Now tell me what size will be the crop if frost is month early this year it's been unusual year and I wouldn't be surprised it happens. What I hear this crop behind normal in large areas but it doesn't matter to the market and even if large percentage does make it will be late and slow harvesting. I would like to see what analysis has been done if we do loose large percentage late crop to frost and harvest loss to wet and immature corn.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Bloomberg on hedgie shorts

But the trade doesn't care ---------- The trade continues to listen to the ever enchanting voice of the siren in the distance, singing in their ear.  Record crop, 14 billion , northern plains acres are endless, fringe acres are uncountable, euphoria, euphoria, come to me,  i love you, I will care for you, keep you in peace and comfort with prosperity for all.  The equivilant to the girl at the pump in the "off topic" this week.  But she lives in Washington DC and is using our credit card and will say anything to keep doing so.

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Here is what eats on me this morning reading this thread.

2011 ------ A drought much worse than last year gripped the southern plains, from the gulf to I-70,  The Sirens ignored it, maintained their aluring song of abundance for all.  The only glimpse of a problem from the sirens was the increasing speed of their use of the public credit card.  The trade chose to ignore the bills run up with crop insurance and rapidly growing public food assistance.

This was possible because there was carry over grain prior to 2011 to mask the crop loss.

2012--------The drought moves into the corn belt, less severe but bigger.  Covers an area that cannot be ignored and we do not have carryover to mask it with.  The sirens continue the same song and spend away.  Finally the trade reacts in August because paper corn flow stopped.  

 

 

The sick Point is -------- The run up in price last August was not because of short crop or drought.  Not because of fear of another 10% of farms going out of business.  Not a fear of food shortages.  The cause of $7.50+ corn was just a simple fear that the sirens might be wrong.  Which tells me that the Trade and usda have a "white collar public assistance" relationship.  The trade is the boyfriend in the car of the girl at the pump.  She lures us in and the Trade protects her.  And they ride off together to the next card machine.

 

Is the next step in vertigal intigration contract grain production with pricing based on profit margin?  Will the siren be the death of the manipulated casino system?