cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

This is a two-page or so discussion by Illinois that recaps the exports over the recent short term.  The data came from USDA ERS.  Smiley Happy

 

US soybean exports to China are down and Brazil is up.  We're exporting more to non-China destinations than before, but the drop in the Chinese trade is bigger.

 

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2018/01/usda-trade-data-update-focus-soybeans-grains/?utm_source...

 

"

The Journal writers noted that, “Bumper harvests in Russia, meanwhile, have allowed exporters there to supply major importers in North Africa and the Middle East at a better price than U.S. farmers can offer. The USDA on Friday raised its Russian export forecast to a record.”

Friday’s Journal article also stated that, “It’s not just Russia squeezing American farmers. U.S. soybean exporters are expected to lose ground to Brazil, which produced a bumper harvest last season and is on track for another. The USDA raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean shipments and trimmed its U.S. export forecast by 65 million bushels to 2.16 billion.”"

0 Kudos
5 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

Of course other countries are going to purchase soybeans from Brazil if they are cheaper.   Just wondering if the Brazilian farmers are getting paid less for their soybeans than U.S. farmers, does exporting more because of this make them the winner........or the loser?

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

The EU has a broadly liberalizing trade agenda and wants to slash subsidies that obstruct the efficient flow of goods around the world and block big free-trade deals.

Brussels, however, is also a big farm subsidizer and lavishes 40 percent of its budget on agricultural payments, sparking complaints from poorer nations that they simply cannot compete

 

Such frustrations boiled over earlier this year when former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan quipped “the European Union pays enough subsidies to fly each cow in Europe around the world first-class and still have money left over.”

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-brazil-to-propose-farm-subsidies-overhaul-to-appease-developing-n...

 

A weakening currency against the dollar has since made Brazilian soybeans more competitive for export.   

 

a few years ago -------- an explanation how our competition gets around the WTO subsidy rules 

 

While direct government payments, except for cotton, were relatively small or nonexistent in 2009/10 and since then, that does not mean that farmers are just relying on market conditions.  Brazil has had a continuing problem of farmers with heavy debt loads from past years of borrowing to rapidly expand production and low incomes due to weather conditions.  Low-cost government lending and debt rescheduling shown with an AMS of $1.53 billion in 2009/10 affect every crop, including sugar and soybeans.  The Brazilian government of President Dilma Rouseff is expected to announce later this month a government credit program for 2013/14 with subsidized interest rates of 2.5 percent, down from 5.5 percent this year, and larger than this year’s program of $58 billion. ---

globalfarmernetwork.org/2013/05/brazils-agricultural-subsidies/
 
0 Kudos
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

While the US and UK were tied up in populist hoopla, the EU was putting a free trade agreement in place with Mercosur.

 

That's how the world works, even if Fox News and Ag Forum believe otherwise.

 

And of course even if it turns out badly, few people will ever admit to making a rash decision that harmed their own interests.

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

Folks were learning fast. We have been told exports
Are the key....they are not....our cost of production
Is just too high....I think SW said it...even if SA gets
A sale below their costs....have they won, same
With us.
I believe the key is this....we consume most of
What we produce. We must find more uses
Only thing left is fuel.,.from moonshine to biodiesel,
Encourage using grains to heat with, ( will be pushback by oil) some sort of production control, and
A tarrif on incoming grains....it bioils down to we
Live in our own little world, and let the rest of the world go nuts (and broke).

That is what NEEDS to happen

Will it, no, too many others are making too much
Money the way it is.

Russia and China can knock us to our knees
Without firing a shot.....
0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Brazil Taking US Soybean Markets

Further...Tweety not so long ago mentioned security
Concerns over Russia and China....
If you study military, you try everything before
Action , the best is money..... Russia, if it went
Full power in agriculture, could bury everyone.
SA has had infrastructure problems....who has
Been fixing...china...so they can have a stable
Flow...without ",market" problems


Time to tell the pom pom girls at farm bureau and
The commodity groups....the world is not a
Nice place
0 Kudos