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Senior Advisor

Brazil is a mess

https://time.com/5837434/brazil-coronavirus-covid-19-latin-america/

So much for the herd immunity or goes away with warm weather things.

Probably not an issue in grains except for possible port problems. 

Could possibly become a problem in more labor intensive commodities like coffee, but I suppose they'll mostly get it picked.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Brazil is a mess

Probably a feature rather than a bug as far as genociding the indigenous and getting on with plowing down the rain forest.

Progress grinds on relentlessly.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The trucks...

The weak link in the Brazil to China supply chain are all the trucks needed to move beans to the ports.  I suppose it might be possible that enough truckers get sick or get scared that it slows down grain movement. 

  But it doesn't really matter,  Brazil is expected to export 77 MMT to China this year.  The total for March & April is 27.9 MMT (a record)  and I'm sure the first three weeks of May have been just as good so the total is probably close to 40 MMT by now.  This suggests they are at least 1/2 finished with three months to go.

  The thing is,  WASDE projects China's total this year at 92 MMT, minus the 77 MMT for Brazil and 14 MMT we've already sold this suggests that they only need another 1 MMT to finish this year out.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The trucks...

Pretty sad. Brazil had been regarded as among the best in the middle income emerging world for public health matters.

I won't elaborate any further since we wouldn't want to be political.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Political? Heaven forbid.....

It's not for no reason that they call Bolsanaro the "trump" of South America.  If "imitation is the sincerest of flattery" then trump must be  pretty well flattered.

   Did you see where Bolsanaro went after the Chinese, calling them "*****" and all sorts of bad names?  I guess Bolsanaro's handling of the virus isn't the only thing he's got in common with trump.

  Won't it be ironic if the Chinese stopped buying from Brazil and bought from us, next year instead?

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