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02-14-2017 08:05 PM - edited 02-14-2017 08:13 PM
Here are some ISU Ag Decision Maker break-even prices. Of course, they specify the practices so if you do something different your numbers will be different.
Conventional Corn 100 acres after soybeans. Figuring 180 bpa yield.
3.51 per acre. Does that work for you?
minimum till corn after beans $3.45
Beans after corn. figuring 50 bpa.
$9.66 per acre.
From what I can tell, these prices are picked up on the farm.
So, if you want to make $100/acre, you have to sell beans at $11.66 and corn at $4 picked up. Which is more likely?
02-15-2017 06:33 AM
Even though around here we`ve had a couple good bean years, I`m still not comfortable plugging in an expected 50 bushel bean yield. On corn the Sun rises in the east and if I had a calibrated yield monitor it would be pegged over 200. So $3.50 corn X 200 $700/a gross that`s doable. Now with beans 45/a X $9 = $405/a gross even lower inputs doesn`t leave much of a buffer. But with corn prices, unless you forward sell, a "$3.50 corn" average price might be hard to achieve.
Because as coops sweep the silo pre-harvest the price sinks to $2.95 and then rallies to $3.25 when combines roll and maybe goes to $3.35 later harvest. That what you store might rally to $3.60 before the "John Deere low". So to get that "$3.50 average you need to have some $3.90 and $4.10 forward sales on the books
02-20-2017 08:46 PM
ISU Dr. Steve Johnson had a webinar on 2017 crop production costs and his charts also show that corn after beans looks like it will give marginally better profits than beans after corn in Iowa. Illinois says go with beans.
If more people figure this out, the big bean acres may or may not totally pan out. I'm going to be a little slow on selling more 2017 beans.
I might look for prices to sell 2017 corn, though.