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Broad commodity liquidation vs. bullish weather

More tension than ever with huge liquidation across the commodity board facing off against bullish weather.


Don't know about the weather. More of the same until it isn't.


Commodity liquidation to continue seems more certain- da Fed is on the sidelines for at least a month, presumably. 


The only thought I really have is that IF there is a surprise weather shift in the next couple of weeks the market is likely to turn on grains with a vengeance as commmodity fund rebalancing kicks in for Q3 in sync with the liquidity squeeze.


If weather doesn't break, I don't know but expect that price actually will be more choppy and muted than you might expect until after the commodity complex gets done liquidating. In theory that might wait until near 0 but almost certainly there will be massive coordinated global intervention before that.


Then it would be off to the races and the further damaged global consumer can pay more for food and energy? Wash, rinse, repeat.







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Re: Broad commodity liquidation vs. bullish weather

Could you simplify that weather piece so the dumb farmer that I am can understand? I have wheat to sell. What would a reasonable target price to chase. Thanks. John
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