Brock predicting biggest corn bear market in history

[DW11]

Richard Brock says we are "ready to go into the biggest bear market in corn in thirty years."   He is 80% sold for 2011 and 50% sold for 2012.  He wishes they were 100% sold.

Allendale rep. said they were at 70% sold for 2011 and 20% for 2012.

Hard to believe there won't be a battle for acres next year that rally's prices, but from what levels might that be?

It's probably good to take some of the froth off this market so that endusers can get some coverage and ethanol will be a smaller target.

[rightone]

If the usa could ever raise a real corn crop say 14 b, might suprise everyone when that is priced in the 6 to $8 cash range

Weather, luck, whatever ( maybe crop ins so lucrative it does not pay to truely raise the acres the usa is capable of ), kind doubtfull they can raise 14 b no matter how much they plant.

[Red Steele]

had a small prevented planting claim this year and the adjuster told me that at seminars they are talking about reducing the acres that are continually covered without raising crops. If you took prevented planting in 2011 on some acres, those acres will not be eligible for crop ins coverage in 2012.

And in my case, I had soybean acres that were fall tilled and fertilized for 2011 corn, but because of moisture I could not get some acres planted...guess what? I get paid for soybean acres under some rule that says you have to go with your average acres regardless of what the obvious crop was going to be. Glad it was just a small field...for a large field that would have really fried my bacon. The soybean payment is only about half of the corn payment and barely covers out of pocket expenses. Turns a situation that I thought was going to be a winner into a loser.

Bet that if the corn market looks tight in Dec and jan that we see massive CRP land releases for the 2012 crop year.

THe government will do what it takes to get the supply of corn up, and the price down.

[idalivered]

Very possible. Even likely, but short term when farmers get done harvesting they will lock the bins up here in iowa. They have enough cash and enough forward contracted and enough deferred to say they will wait on bigger prices. til next spring. Our local elevators are so empty and all the farm storage is empty and we don't have a great crop so there is definitely adequate storage to hold us. I mean these elevators are down to way lower inventories than normal for pre-harvest. coops are literally empty of soys, too. would love to hear ray jenkins take on logistics of the next 6 months.

[docharing]

IMO Brock is just trying to cover his bad advice with more hype, he doesn't want to lose any more of his followers.

[arnfarm735]

Surprise, surprise Brock is bearish. When isn't he???

He balances out one of my elevator owners who is always bullish.

[BA Deere]

Yes, kudos to those that have those two perma-bear`s number.  For full disclosure I wish those two clowns had to reveal the amount of corn they had clients "scaling up sales at $4.50 and $5.00".  With everyone (that didn`t listen to them) being flush with cash this fall, maybe there will be a small wave of sales (John Deere sales) in Jan and Feb?

[roarintiger1]

Just like predicting a drought year after year.....He'll eventually get it right.   FWIW, I hardly believe that it could top the 80s and 90s bear markets at $1.50 per bushel.

[Artifice]

New paradigm, produce a bumper crop and price stays way over the COP. Honest? Economics 001, high prices induce higher production (when Mo nature cooperate) and quells demand. Prices don’t peak the day prod is up 2b and use down 1 B, it peaked LONG before.

Corn costs more to be long in ins, storage, deterioration, than it goes up in nominal terms, by LOTS.

Whence joebobjanechissy index fund learn that, kaboom, a mass of spec length gone til the next cycle in 2040. In 1980 a long commodity fund was created –choke ..

who risks 100% sold of an ungrown crop?

[rayjenkins]

Idadelivered.......you've got a good handle on the developing situation....barring a lot of weather issues, I am expecting Iowa corn harvest to be history by end of October this year, and that creates a pretty big hole for the processor to cover before the calendar turns to January 1.

will be interesting to see if we can really get to wide basis levels during harvest, or will everyone be aggressive to fill their available space...I'm expecting a pretty big snap in corn basis during November this year...in fact, some of the best early/mid-winter basis selling opportunities may develop by mid-November...

get ready to do that bin-coring a bit sooner than you might have expected!