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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

Buba thinks we should`ve raised rates 10 years ago and we`d be a 5% now.  I think so too, but ...  "Reasons".    The economy is already slowing down, no more stimulus that I know about, won`t inflation take care of itself with the punchbowl in the dishwasher?

Chip and Davis were wondering the rate hike`s effect on land prices.  I don`t see much effect, being as it mostly sells for cash ... supposedly.   I guess I was home sick the day they taught everyone how to "plant a money tree" in Vocational Agriculture class.   😀      But, it might eliminate some of the 3rd and 4th bidders who run it to the crazytime levels and investors might find other opportunities in a higher interest environment.  

Here`s a photo from a bike ridder this morning.  They like beer in Wesley, Iowa 😀

BADeere_0-1658953238150.jpeg

 

 

11 Replies
k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

Did  they  have  the  Fed. Reserve  meeting  in  Wesley  ?   IN - flation  has  even  hit  the  Mega  Millions  drawing , with 1+ Billion  drawing  coming  up  = = =

Just  look  at  those  2013  China  -  HOG  -  Land  investments !  Will  they  $ell  at  a  profit  with  their  140,000+  acre  portfolio  OR  hold  tight,  and  let'er   ride  ?????? 

Also,  $$$$$  is  higher  and  grains  are  up ?  ?  ? 

AAAand  C O - 2   pipelines  are  making  interesting  news  headline$  - hmmm = = =   

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

Hey K-289, Chip`s show is available now here: https://www.agweb.com/agritalk   (7/27/22 PM show) at 6:20 they talk to Bubba.  Chip later in the show hypothesizes inflation in the 3rd and 4th quarters might be 5% so the Fed will have to take rates to 6% eventually.   My question is, with inflation having roared at 8% and 9% are consumers still going to have the excess dollars to chase the fewer goods?  Walmart`s Canary is already coughing up a lung with warnings of cuts to earnings.  Apparently Walmart shoppers are back to work and don`t need anymore bicycles, kayaks, tv`s and $5 DVDs. 

If rates go to 6% how will the government service the $30 Trillion debt?   I don`t know where the prime rate will be, but wouldn`t that push the housing market off a cliff?  And 2023 operating notes?   If 0% interest had 20% credit card interest, what will plastic rates be with a Fed funds rate of 6%? 

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k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

Keep  in  mind ,  volume  users  get  a  special,  discount or  + rate ,  liken  to  a  $50 k   C. D. ,  verses  the  $5  million  customer 😎  = = =

$$$$$'s  or  Rubles ,   $$$$$'s  or  Peso's  ,  which  would  be  your  pick  ??????????  DIGITAL  ? 

No  discussion  on  the  on  the  C-O2  pipe  or  the  China  land  holdings   ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  

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too close for comfort
Senior Contributor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

If you're thirty trillion in debt (and could stop spending, which is apparently impossible) won't inflation be your friend?

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

It is the intent........... to make us carry 100's instead of 10s and 20s.    

If Starbucks went to $50 a cup.  Would the line slow down??  Not if corn is at $20 a bushel.

There will be no serious attempt at tightening the money supply to stop inflation.  IMO

We had one big review of FSA payments this year in our county on a year when no payments were made..... and the review committee didn't know the difference between a crop payment and a farm stored loan.  More evidence that FSA programs are a thing of the past.

 

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

Not quite:

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/usda-boosts-funding-for-pandemic-hog-payments

Actually, rather welcome information.  When the EWG data comes out after the checks have all cleared it should present a fairly indisputable picture of just whose hogs they are and where the money went.

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rsbs
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

BA, I have a hard time digesting that "most farms are purchased with cash". I recently bought a couple of small  properties "with cash" but actually refinanced other property before hand while I could still get 4% interest. I called my good lender a couple of weeks ago and he told me that the 4.4 % rate was now over 7, and even if I get 20 percent back as a dividend, it is still "ouch!".

So $15000 land doesn't work, $10,000 land doesn't work,......at least for me it doesn't. I kind of doubt that most savvy investors want $10,000 plus land in investment portfolios (although I bet a few still do), and more power to them. The farm family that has a "once in a lifetime opportunity" to buy the place across the road for $15,000 per acre ( they ain't making anymore land.....it won't change hands for another hundred years...etc) ....they are the ones I feel sorry for. Glad I have never had the mindset that you can't just walk away. My late father taught me that a long time ago....never covet anything so much that you cannot just say "no".

I am thinking retirement mode within a decade, and the last thing I want to retire with is a burdensome  debt hanging over my head. My five to ten year plan is to be debt free, with good cash flow, and the ability to spend my social security checks on all the things and places I never have done yet. The wild card is staying healthy, of course. If you wait all of your life to enjoy a slower pace at semi retirement, and get ill, that is a really sad event. Somethings you have no control over, just like driving down the road and getting T-boned. I hope that the experts that say these covid vaccinations have set us up for raging cancer epidemics are wrong, too. I think I would rather get T-boned that get a cancer diagnosis. 

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

If you’ve accumulated enough cash to partially offset short term financing and then use that to buy land, you aren’t “paying cash”.

Particularly when a big chunk of that cash is actually deferred income taxes.

Some food for discussion there but I won’t bother to explore that here.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Buba Horowitz on with Chip about rate hike

I remember the late  Donny Kraft buying a chunk of ground next to him down at Renwick.  He was retired, the piece of ground came up for sale and he would have to borrow some of the "crazy high" $5,000/acre. But he told his kids, "every farm I`ve bought has been too high, now it looks cheap.  So, do you kids want in inherit a half a farm or no farm?" .  Of course Kraft having bought it was a smart decision and if his kids still own it today, I bet they don`t even remember paying off the $1,000 or so off on the farm that`s now worth $18,000 down there.

I went to the Hefty Boys field day yesterday, they had Tony Reed, a Illinois farmer with a big following on something called "TikTok".   He was saying he farms close to Howard Buffet and he buys what he wants, farms have 6" of slope across whole farm and selling +$20,000, rent up to $600/acre.  Tony is 42 and actually a "first generation farmer"  His wife might`ve been a prom queen 🙂  but, didn`t bring a working BTO operation into the marriage.  He just started as a hireman who was able to go above & beyond that job and now farms 1400 acres on his own.

https://www.tiktok.com/discover/Tony-Reed?lang=en  

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