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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Jeezzz MT...he answered you straight up, 12.80, which is obviously a realistic number, frankly it is too high, but it is not a bs number for him apparently.  (I happen to know he is a fairly successful farmer btw...a bit irrationally exuberant at the end of bear markets maybe...but a farmer none the less :-)  )

Ehoff knows mine, or course my number is pretty irrelevant to anyone else, so why share it for you guys to chew up?

 

Besides, cost is only 1 variable in a multi-variant equation. Since we can count on commodities averaging below their cost of production over the long-term, surviving obviously will not be a cost issue on its own. jme  It is certainly not yield, price is not the whole thing, it is the whole thing together, with financial structure probably being the most important.  Always has been.

 

Just to tease you a bit, we are about 50% through with harvest on beans, averaging well over 65, which puts our costs somewhere under $10, all acres rent, health ins for all, etc...but really who cares. We won't average 65 again for a few years...PEAK BEANS :-)

 

You might remember I said the statistics for the 2014 corn yield implied 175...pretty close for a calc I did in 2012. Not that your peak ego will allow anyone else to be correct for a moment in TIME.

 

OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

What do you want mt? Cost per acre or cost per bushel? I won't know either one until it's harvested and over the scale.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Of course my COP isn't 12.80 its a play on his peak corn, (now its peaks of corn), and his comical pronostication of a 12.8 bil bu corn crop.  Its about as comical as him telling everyone I am not a farmer.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Geez Time. He didn't answer straight up which is exactly why I kept asking.

He is a flighty and shifty.

O and I was asking for buckys and f89 numbers since they seemed to be so interested in the thread below. I wasn't asking for yours or anyone else's.

O and you are not teasing at all. As of today it appears I am about half of your COP if you are $9-10 for the whole ball of wax. I think I will survive on those numbers just find

Hard to imagine some po dunk hick farmer from MO can beat out some slick willy BTO in IN
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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Alright mt. Needed to gross 280-300 for hrww this year, about 220-300 for beans and 400-600 for corn to get even.

Mind you tomorrow is day 1 of bean harvest.. Well yesterday was but for a breakdown at the start.

I'm not in as competitive an area as you guys, but I'm not as fringe either.
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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Btw I got bucks 12.80 when I saw it right away... Lol!!
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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Obviously you didn't cause his first reply was 12.8 not 12.80. Which was a dead give away he wasn't answering the question

and he still hasn't answered it or any others

Not sure why you defend this guy. He was late to the bean party and has whiffed the corn market 10-13. Lol. Hardly someone to pay attention too
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ehoff
Frequent Contributor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

I kinda like the gross per acre answer above because it adds 2 variables that are unknown until the production season is over and the crop marketing season is 1/2 over. I have always thought in terms of total gross and gross per acre.

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

If you want to get super technical on breakeven: take all your fixed costs per acre in a spread sheet and sum them up, divide by your price per bushel and express breakeven in bushels. Then multiply your truck/dry/other yield variable expenses by that number (ie trucking is .25 per bushel). Have the first sum we talked about plus the variable sum. THAT is the absolute breakeven
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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Bucky. What's your COP?

Mt what are you trying to do, get me on the dark side? C'mon you cheerin on one days trade is not representative of the long term trend.

Beans don't know what they want to do.. We are going to need more closes to find out.

Ya can't just keep ignoring the facts of the marketplace. Your still the guy who says things are small. It never changes, no matter what. It's just like watching a gambler goin to a casino hoping to make money: they just can't comprehend what's going on
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