Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 

But ear weight is tricky

Ear count down nearly 1000/acre vs. '14 and '15 so in order to hit a 175 yield a record average ear weight is implied.


Although, remember that is AVERAGE ear weight. Ear weights won't be as high in a lot of the WCB as last year, won't be as high as the ECB in 2014. But with neither end really tanking will the average be higher?


Also, we're talking .02# here, to put it in perspective.


And fwiw, having not heard of a lot of emergence problems I assume maybe producers dialed back a bit on that expensive seed, which seems rational. But with a lower drop you'd also expect a higher ear weight- above 30K on all but the very best environments you're in economically marginal territory anyway.


I have no idea. As I said, a credible source who scouted a fair route told me that he doesn't see IL hitting the 200 bpa record from 2014. And while I strongly believe that the most dire statements on IN are utterly unfounded, I don't see it coming quite this close to 2014 either.


FWIW, the workhorse in 2014 was the southern corn belt/mid-south where they hit yields they may not see again for sometime. That region is solid but I doubt if it is that good.


So I'm open to the notion that we may have seen the biggest number for the year.


But also open to the notion that the demand side looks pretty ample. If that plays out that way- disappointing- it still might leave some room for some rallies until it comes to pass.


Also very fwiw, I think the final bean yield will probably be higher, maybe by more than a bushel. That's kind of a big deal as bean tightness is a major underpinning of the whole thing, acreage bid and whatnot.

0 Kudos
2 Replies

Re: But ear weight is tricky

Let's say that given the marginal economics you cut seed drop from 34K to 33, a 3% reduction.


That saves you $3 an acre and assumes that you're not going after the marginal 1 bpa difference. Lets call it 2 just for the heck of it.


So all things being equal you'll have a 2bpa yield loss (1% yield reduction 200bpa assumed) with 3% fewer ears.


So to get the target 198 yield vs 200 that implies an approx .02# heavier ear.


I thind Bob Nielson did a piece on that a while back- economic optimum pop vs. agronomic- the margins get pretty thin out there at the high end.

0 Kudos

Re: But ear weight is tricky

How is average ear weight figured?


Does it change much over the growing season?

0 Kudos