C IN will need a rain

[Hobbyfarmer]

Garden city, ks to liberal three days ago, puddles, yesterday afternoon....lakes. 

That system went diagonal nw across kansas 100 miles wide leaving all of the area with enough moisture to make the dry land corn close to tripple digits, Milo now in most of those same large area also triple digit yield numbers too. Growing a whole mountain range of grain out here this year.

So far an exceptionally small amount of hail.

[timetippingpt]

So Hobby,

Avg Corn is 180, trend is 188. It looked like 215 was possible 14 days ago. Now I would say it looks like 180 is likely. Hardly a disaster, but probably more mentally disappointing than 2012. So close, and yet not a great finish.

Avg Beans is 60, trend is 63, 70 was possible on 8/1, So do the equation 70-(70*(days with rolled over beansx2.5%)). Today would day 4 for rolling beans on average so (70-((70*4*2.5%)))=70-(70*-10%))= 70-7= 63 today. 

Just back to trend, so IF we got a 2" rain today, 63 would be the likely yield.

BUT, with 5 more days with no rain, the equation becomes 70-(70*(9*2.5%))= 70-15.75= 54.25. We figure we need 2 tenths of an inch a day in august to max yields.

The math works the same on the state averages, it is just the starting point is not 70, it is 62.

Only point I was trying to make was that the "will nead" rain is pretty bogus. Lots of areas are past the "will" part of it.

[ECIN]

Quote from " Time "    :  

Hardly a disaster, but probably more mentally disappointing than 2012. So close, and yet not a great finish I would have to agree 100 % Time -- 2012 started out for me very good - Maybe one of the best - " potential crops " I had - but at about V 8 - well the rain just shut off - This year it has made it farther down the road still looking good yet I believe it will just be maybe - maybe a average crop , On our farm - Like when we raced - we didn't go to come in second - = the first loser ! can be very disappointing to not bring home the checkers .