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hardnox
Advisor

CCI CRB Index

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

 

We've arrived at one destination- the 500 triple bottom.

 

The old saw says that triple bottoms never hold (never say never) but probably true in this case. One possible measured objective would be for wave 5 to equal wave 1 at around 25 points yielding an objective around 490. Then you'd presumably have room for a muti-month recovery but the most orthodox target for that would be the end of wave 4 of the previous degree- only abuot 515.

 

Somewhat supportive of that is that if you roll the chart to weekly you'll see that the RSI hasn't spent a lot of time under 30/over 70. So I think we may be within weeks of a significant intermediate bottom.

 

Although I'd suggest that the ultimate destination for the major cycle low is in the 300s, maybe the higher end, maybe not.

 

Here's a longer perspective.

 

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cr.pdf

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4 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

sorry

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$cci

 

don't know why the chart link flips to the indus like that, think it is when I leave it on weekly

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: CCI CRB Index

Looks like stock m kt is sitting on a cliff
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: CCI CRB Index

Looks like the pulse of the fed.   Fed will have to IV money to keep it up.  Not a healthy EKG

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hardnox
Advisor

Some discussion

on the long term chart.

 

I've always regarded the the 2008 peak as the orthodox high of the 30 year cycle. I know that is a stretch- the longer the cycle the tighter the tolerances and 1920,50,80 came in close to on the money.

 

But we were all present at that party and the psychology was surely right- it was a mad, mad time. As the adminisrtation moved to drive the dollar relentlessly lower, totally unregulated, ufettered  $trillions in carry trades built short against the dollar, long anything else.

 

On this historic CRB, 2011 actually topped what I call the orthodox top (but not on GSCI or new CRB that have different weightings). Metals were actually the biggest component of that move as the whole world piled into that game knowing that hyperinflation was on the way after all the stimulus, QE etc.

 

Lol.

 

So I'll call that an echo bubble, probably not the actually crescendo of momentum that 2008 represented. And will point out that I love the amount of historical data avaialble for this old CRB, nothing is perfect and you don't want to fall in love with it. One flaw is that this index is overweight the metals, particularly for now. In 1980, metals were the game. Today, not so much.

 

Good news if 2008 was the high, maybe the bottom begins to form sooner. Far from scientific but the old saying is 10 down, 10 along the bottopm and ten up. So maybe we'll begin to find some legs about 2018, build a baqse fort a decade and then some of you youngsters can have some fun again.

 

For the rest of us, coffee break's over, back in the $%^& for another thousand years!

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