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hardnox
Advisor

CCI CRB index

Can't quite call it done on its own merits but here's my take.

 

The Jan-Feb corrective rip was historic insofar as you had the sharpest swing in overall short to long position of large specs ever seen. I think I'll attribute that to what C-X-1 was looking for at the time- a swing by big money into a very oversold sector.

 

It started in gold which in 20/20 hindsight was the no-brainer of the year- it was the worst performing major asset of 2013 and tax liquidation of the losses ran right up to year end. Little surprise that they piled back in. Now it is looking vulnerable and silver is negative on the year.

 

The grains started the bounce on pure short covering of vrey oversold conditions and in classic fashion, the fundamental stories, i.e., Brazil in particular, didn't emerge until late in the move.

 

Grains still have plenty of weather to get through but make no mistake that the technical bull case was hurt badly today.  Actually are some charts across the complex that share some similarities- a lot of truncated or failed fifth waves.

 

I'm particularly watching crude oil as the master commodity and think it could go to $70-80 by mid to late summer. That's going to hurt grains indirectly, through index investments and directly in corn and bean oil should it happen.  As always with oil, that is subject to geopolitical conditions.

 

I think that if you're looking for news for today, more bad economic numbers from China seem as big as anything.

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