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Senior Advisor

COP......DOUG......

By the looks of all the replies to your thread there are going to be some hurting units if corn goes sub 4........

Its very obvious that many on here have never made 1.80 corn with no crop insurance and 80 bushel corn work........

People......get a sharper pencil.......you know what, never mind, it will make land come around that much quicker.....

Now to your question

First off, welcome to the land of fringe acres............i would kill for 150 bushel budget..........try 120, and still survive with 80........use 40 on soya and survive on 20...........

200/acre and 100/acre is for seed, chem, fert, and crop insurance

Seed-plant 26k not 36k and get seed cost sub 200/bag......soya, untreated sub 40/bag........yes its doable and frankly i probably should work harder as i am leaving at least 10/acre on table...

Chem-do all own spraying which pays in spades within one year.........corn spend 15-20/acre and soya right around that.....

Fert-removal rates plus a tick move in tight years........not mining soil at all......actually fertilizing ahead of soya too.......and lime.......shop around and rent a cart or buy one.........dont need 200 units of N in this country, not with a 120-140 target........heck last time I checked N, P and K were all under .40/unit......here anyway....

Crop insurance is self explanatory.

Mostly NO-TILL (amazing how little fuel it takes to spray, plant, and harvest) here with well maintained used equipment (shiny paint isn't free even if its used as a tax write off) so 100/acre more than covers, fuel, repairs maintenance, taxes, insurance, ETC........

So 300 and 200/acre at 120 and 40 is...........2.5 bushel on corn and 5 bushel on soya.........

No brainer to go all soya, however gotta keep some rotation........working on wheat as an option too.......

Land is one we didn't talk about.........its so random........100-250/acre here.......50/50......2/3 1/3........all paid off..........depends on the situation.......

Fact is some survived sub 2 dollar corn with sub 100 bushel corn and no crop insurance game for decades........very few have ever seen a pencil that sharp...........

Based on the replies below theres going to be a lot of broken pencils....
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Veteran Contributor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Interesting. Thanks for replying. On our farm I look at cost per bushel, not per acre. Some things it makes sense to cut back on, others it does not.
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Senior Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

What bushels do you use, APH? Otherwise how do you know COP before harvest?
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Honored Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

shaggy,

 

I use something under our norms------------ 175-80 bu irrig corn  we will beat that by 20+

dryland milo 45 expecting more

 

in other words,  something conservative off of average. for a starting point and of course as you get into august and know rain patterns you can hone it in closer.  Just something to give me a feel for what expenses are going to do to us.  

For instance this year we chose not to get a custom harvester to help us finish milo because the dry land needed cut, but was going to take all the potential profit margin to pay for the help.  Will just take us longer this way.  But if we weren't concious of cop we would probably decided different. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Let`s say that Janet Yellen or a Ukrainian drought doesn`t "bail us out"  and exactly 1 year from now we`re talking about "$2.25 corn".   If that`s the case, I don`t think potash will be $550 or 32% N will be $329 or diesel fuel (red stuff) will be $3.27/gallon all those inputs will also come way down.

 

With $2.25 corn, Dekalb won`t be selling $379 seedcorn with discount gimicks to take it to "$325", it`ll have to drop in half or Dekalb will be out of business.  Eply Seed is selling seed for $115/bag, that`s more suited for sub-$3 cash corn.

 

The market will have a decission to make during the month of Feburary(crop ins price set) as to if it needs to bid the fringe acres into the 2014 crop year or will they be comfortable enough with the 2013 carryover and the upcoming `14 growing season.

 

We are just in the midst of input suppliers coming to grips of their high priced inventory and the low cash grain prices.  Those input suppliers that can`t turn their ship in the harbor within the next year won`t fare well.

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Honored Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

BA when you say something "has too" you are wrong. It doesn't have to. You evidently did NOT farm through the 80's and 90's.

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Honored Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Hey Hobbyfarmer, I`m sorry I missed your swaray at the Podunk, I`d loved to have met you. 

 

Well, through the 70`s and 80`s the way my Dad survived was he got out of debt in 1970 and never borrowed a nickel again.  As the neighbors that peddled seed quit, he would take his 3 or 4 bag order and buy more from "George" http://www.alseed.com/viking-corn .   He never sold any corn...we bought corn and marketed it "on the hoof" never used comercial nitrogen, the high ground was rotated with corn after alfalfa there you got your #100 of N and corn was put in the peat there you got #100 N with the 20% organic matter.  #400 of 9-23-30 was put on with the corn planter, that was the only fertilizer.  Seldom beans were raised, when they were it was bin run seed.

 

During the 80`s "farm crisis" we didn`t have debt so quite honestly "what farm crisis?" it was the 20% interest rates that killed everyone.  We were running $2.25 corn through $45 hogs and laughing all the way to the bank.  See, corn and bean prices were actually pretty good in the 80`s

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a2-11.pdf    The seed we bought from George was $35/ a bag I believe.

 

 

What is gonna kill the farmers "this time" is the lack of livestock, everybody has gotten so specialized and so damned big, all the bridges are burned behind them, totally at the mercy of Janet Yellen and the head of the EPA Ethanol mandate. 

 

In David`s "Happy Place"  where I visit in my mind more frequenly these days Smiley Happy   Every farm has cows, hogs, chickens frolicking through the pastures with no debt, no WallyWorlds, no made in China crap, no liberals.  But that place only exists in my mind  Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Sounds like heaven to me . Lot of guys have 4.50 per bu in this crop and can't get 4 out of it
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Veteran Contributor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Good discussion on COP.

 

Yes, we all have to reduce costs, but inputs need to work their way lower as well.  I understand what Hobby says: "they do not necessarily have too."  It may take time.   

 

Therefore my farm plan is basically to take a "year off" on corn, grow the corn acres I need for livestock, and rotation the rest to other crops. 

 

Less corn and rotation may be good from a insect standpoint as well.  Never seen adult rootworm in swarms like flies around the fields like this year.

 

Already started the rotation/acre switch with all soybean acres gone to wheat this fall.

 

(Still finishing this corn crop, might have to wait for a hard freeze to get back in the field, just never stops raining!)     

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Frequent Contributor

Re: COP......DOUG......

Nice post MT.    Same for Hobbys in reply to Doug as to inputs.

 

Gives some of us other fringe farmers a lot to think about.

 

How we grow  <$4 corn is a lot different than $6+ corn. 

 

My approach on my poor ground will be a lot different in '14; nice to see some numbers and how some work the 120 ground.

 

 

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