Looks to be heading into the heart of a third wave down of either 3 or C.
Doesn't directly mean that grains go lower but provides headwinds. Talk builds about the end of the commodity super cycle. Don't care about talk, do care that markets eem to be confirming.
When I do daily and weekly looks at the charts of a broad range of commodities I've been bothered by not finding much I'd want to be long, Makes me wonder if there is something skewed in my analytical paradigm.
Don't think so, although it is always a good idea to look for tripwires that, if crossed, would call for reassessment. I'll get back to you on that- probably as more to do with the dollar than anything, or at least that's a place to consider?
Re: CRB Index
CRB looks to have bottomed or at least flattened for now. Gold ,SI bounced near long term support - almost all spec money has left?
CL staying supported. meats, softs, etc.
Re: CRB Index
Kind of interesting that even for as abstruse as the index is it does tend to show some respect for round numbers.
So there's some logic in finding some support around 500 along with the previous end point of wave 1 or A in the area as well.
We'll let market action confirm but I'm thinking it may not hold for long, though. If that happens I'd suggest that one should listen to what the market is saying.
My interprepretation of that would be that it will be your Grandfather's market once again, not your New Age Bankster BIL's any more.
Having said that I need to wait for the market to speak. Vanity is a killer and at all costs one needs to avoid being like the goldbugs who are coming up with a million resaons why the market is wrong and they are right.
If the deflationary trend begins to gather steam it might seem reasonable to assume that it will be met with an inflationary response. However, my view is currently a little darker than that. I'm tending toward the view that there isn't enough consensus either domestically or globally to hit it in a sufficiently large or timely manner.