http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cr.pdf
I've often found value in revisiting the old continuous CRB from time to time. It is much less weighted toward energy than the newer Jeffries version and I think therefore more valuable from a long term historical perspective.
FWIW, you can count a potentially complete 3 wave (5-3-5 zigzag) although there's nothing to confirm Wave B is over at present. I'll have to go study a bit more to determine what conditions would permit it to be called a top.
On an even more subjective note, that would jibe with my belief that we'd see an echo rebound in the commodities to finish the 30 year cycle but that it would at best only make marginal new highs if that.
Of course there is a political element to this that potentially trumps any technical analysis- if a country really wants to destroy its currency it can. However, I believe that the Fed will find itself more constrained by politics than previously and there sure as shootin' isn't any help coming from the fiscal side over the next two years.
