I've often found value in revisiting the old continuous CRB from time to time. It is much less weighted toward energy than the newer Jeffries version and I think therefore more valuable from a long term historical perspective.
FWIW, you can count a potentially complete 3 wave (5-3-5 zigzag) although there's nothing to confirm Wave B is over at present. I'll have to go study a bit more to determine what conditions would permit it to be called a top.
On an even more subjective note, that would jibe with my belief that we'd see an echo rebound in the commodities to finish the 30 year cycle but that it would at best only make marginal new highs if that.
Of course there is a political element to this that potentially trumps any technical analysis- if a country really wants to destroy its currency it can. However, I believe that the Fed will find itself more constrained by politics than previously and there sure as shootin' isn't any help coming from the fiscal side over the next two years.
Re: CRB index
Look at long term DX charts as well. The DX goes up and down, down and up . with little correlation to anything, except building unsustainable trends that end. Or history, my son, becaus someone thinks they need YEN &d help push it up
has nothing to do with where the YEN will be in 6 mo or 2 yrs. It good some want EUROS!!! Where is the harm?
ThePERMA bear DX view pervades sentuiment. As if it is permanent.
The DX is just fine.
Re: CRB index
Big deal yesterday with the CRB making another run at 600 and getting stuffed.
FWIW, looks to me like the 1980 30 year cycle high in the CRB came in the last week of the eyar with the top in gold and silver coming in the first week of 1981.
Close enough for me, somewhere, some time in here.
PS= ya think the $3 gas has people revved up to do more Christmas shopping?