Ray, funny you should bring this up. I was thinking the same thing today. Corn has been in the crapper since harvest, and with today's dismal soybean trade, I wonder if we could see some older farmers that have a nice nest egg from the past couple years decide to retire and opt out of putting their ground out for rent.
Blacksand,It just makes me wonder when I hear or see a stugle for diversification.It seems like the gov. has to much control of the spiggot.I would not think so,but it always seems like they can manage to get the supply they want and then LOL at the price being sub standard of the cost of production.I would say get the hayland back,and the cows,if you like the live stock buss.and next time the grain price goes high,stay with the diversification.Its kind of what I was trying to refere to in an earlyer post titled,Youve been played!
I was talking to one of my suppliers the other day and he told me one of his big players was telling his landlords they need to come down on the rent or he wouldn't pay the second half of the rent that is do after harvest. You have to think that they would at least think about CRP after that kind of crap.
If I was the land lord of that deal he would also get notice of discontinuation due his notice of impending default. Wonder how his Iron pmt would work out on that?
Plan B would to file a lean on the crop and make sure every grain buyer in 100 miles got a copy. Get my rent out of him and make sure he got notice of termination. Got to be some decent younger guy that needs a start. Especially if all the DUDE wants to pay is half of the contract. Did he pony up extra on the $8 corn year? Or did he give it to Mother Deere?
He is probably the idiot that set the rent too high in the area anyway. ZERO pitty for a cheat.
Hobby, its amazing how some of these big shooters manipulate landlords. We have a big shot in the county east of me that has 3 years to pay any given years land rent as stated in his contracts. That same guy rents nearly all of the 10,000 acres he farms. With the price he pays for land rent I don't know how he could pay the bills on $5 corn, let alone $3 corn. Eventually the wheels fall off these big operations, and when they do its usually the landlords that get stuck with nothing. I say this, but a lot of the blame is the landlord themselves. Its amazing to me when I USED to knock on doors of landlords and get the cold shoulder because I didn't run brand new equipment. I haven't talked to a single landlord in almost 2 years. When I see the market tank like it is Im glad I quit buying ground and chasing high land rents.
Takes two to tango Hobby.............................these crazy, and usually absentee landlords are to blame...............
fact is, that half paid up is probably more than the land rented for 3 years ago...........which means its probably more than some young buck can still afford today.............which means that BTO has more leverage than you think............and again I blame the landlords thru and thru...........in most cases they were even more greedy than the BTO offering or agreeing to pay the rent..........so much so they kicked the young buck off the farm 3 years ago..........
two to tango my friend...........two to tango...........
as to the original poster...........yes we will see CRP enrollment probably recover, especially after some of these HEL pieces of clay trash are beginning show scars and the gravy OM that was built up is already about burned thru...........
also, several fields of alfalfa being put back in and some pasture being seeded back..........
if it is going to be 1/2 price I''ll bet some younger smaller farmer can figure it out.
Seeding down and giving it a rest... very small % I'd be willing to wager.
Have you priced that option?
Return on that very poor the first year.
Most are geared for row crop in machinery as well as attitude and banker type financing.
Hay/forage is a boom or bust deal with way more bust than boom in most areas. Just ain't gonna happen yet.