Can Russia go it alone?

[Palouser]

This piece is worth reading. It is the issues of Russia dealing with sanctions ahd the effect on their economy. And the idea they can go it alone. There are exports of meat from the US which they are threatening to replace domestically. What is NOT mentioned is that would mean exports of grain would be drastically reduced if they could pull it off.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that if Putin goes ahead with a takeover of Ukraine, which I think he can easily accomplish, that the domestic disruptions of the economy would ultimately lead to Putin's removal. It might lead to a social revolution against the oligarchs.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0425/Not-waving-but-drowning-Russia-talks-tough-on-sancti...

[giolucas]

I heard a commentator stating that the Ukraine economy is the size of San Diego's economy. I do not know if this is true.

Talk about a small country affecting the entire global market.  

In terms of Putin going it alone wouldn't you think that China would help them with the resources they need.  China will sell to anyone.  

[BA Deere]

"Exports of unknown destinations"   🙂

[kraft-t]

As a sanction strategy I question the value of it. I'm reminded of fidel castro and cuba and how well that worked.

Eisenhower kennedy johnson nixon ford carter reagan bush clinton bush2 obama all came and went and if fidel wanted the job he would have outlasted all of them.

Who knows if fidel still has a grip on the reins but sanctions didn't upset his apple cart.

[Palouser]

It's true that US sanctions against Cuba haven't been critical to them but, out allies never joined in. Not canada, Mexico or Europe. On the other hand Iran, that would seem a poorer candidate for success than Cuba has been brought to the negogiating table becasue the EU HAS cooperated. S Africa before that. Grain embargo against the Soviets didn't succeed because, like Cuba, our allies didn't cooperate.

I think the key is that Russia want to be a world power with an advanced economy. Like Iran, the oligarchy is likely to get citizen resistance - more so in Russia than Iran maybe. I think Putin is on the brink of a Ukraine invasion but he may yet be held back by the economic disruption. Cuba never had that at stake, and still doesn't, partly because of the sanctions.

I think Putin may need a political settlement soon if he doesn't invade and trigger big issues. The canal feeding water to Crimea has been cut off and there is no transportation infrastructure directly to Crimea unless everything comes by ship.

[425Cat]

Russia might become the next North Korea. Poor souls!

[Palouser]

I don't think the Russian society will put up with eating grass and bark like the Koreans (though I hear birch isn't bad). I think they dump Putin if they start heading that direction.

[Canuck_2]

It may be that sanctions and world opinion is already having an impact on Russia.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-s-credit-rating-cut-to-near-junk-status-1.2621795

Russia felt the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on its economy on Friday, when ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut its credit grade for the first time in five years and the central bank raised interest rates to keep the sliding currency from fueling inflation.

S&P said in a statement it dropped Russia's rating to one level above "junk status" because the tense situation over Ukraine was causing investors to pull money out of the country.

Lets not forget though that Russia has most of Europe by the short curlies as they are a major supplier of energy to Europe.

Maybe we have to pay a little too so Europe can have a safe supply of energy.

Is that why gas hit over $1.50 a litre in places in Canada this week?

[Shaggy98]

Gas is $1.50 per liter?  That's still cheaper than Coca-Cola.  

[425Cat]

Putin might be consolidating his power with a select few. The rest dont matter. All spoils to the top. Look at the history ; Lenin stalin. Would the world tolerate these types today. The world tolerates North Korea. Course we have the nuclear issue today though.
I guess it depends on what Putin's ambitions are. Is ukraine enough or does he want the B altics Poland etc