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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

Tomm talked about "selling to minimize loss`s instead of maximizing profits"  to me that doesn`t compute...maybe it should, but it doesn`t.   I know technically and fundamentally he`s probably saying the truth, have no reason to doubt him.  Black swans happen, I know you`re pretty desperate if your marketing plan is down to black swans, but to me hoping for a black swan is more pleasant than "minimizing a loss" upfront....you got absolutely nothing to look forward to for the rest of the year unless you spend money you don`t have to "buy a call" to protect your position.

 

I think there`s a lot of old crop corn, even at the elevators, I know one that still has some tarped from last fall, they couldn`t move it as it`s deep pocketed farmer owned and they had to make room for the `16 harvest.  The "piles" are probably contained in round tin cans, to steal an old Ray J quote. 

 

Farmers will have to capitulate and "minimize their losses" before the market can go up, they know whose hands it`s in.   

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

Tomm applies no value to potential...... when it is sold..... all potential is gone.  Like contract farming with a guaranteed loss to keep from loosing more......

 

Just call me a fool and keep the meeting short..

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

a question

 

why is it that farmers MUST sell before the price can get any better ?

 

just think about that for a while.

 

we are TOLD that we must get it sold so it can be used for price to go up.

 

a question....if there is a demand for the product (grain)....and it's not sold, shouldn't the

price go up....seems to me that is part of supply and demand, that we are hit over the

head with every day..but in this instance, when we have a limited supply (lack of selling)

the demand (price) should go up.

 

the idea of "oh well if you don't sell we'll get it from somewhere else, there are huge supplies world wide",

ah George...read my little entry about the "cost of corn", and how it would be $7.36.........

 

so you are going to scare me, saying you don't sell it will go down, i'll get it somewhere else, perhaps

we should say, go ahead, inport it.

 

the more I study all of this, the bigger the bigger joke it is becoming.........the commodity markets are not real.

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

ElCheapo, the bushels hanging over the market, it`s like anything ...well like Tomm says "why would endusers be exercised to buy and pay up when they know it`s a big carryover and good yields and weather around the world?", hate to admit he`s right.   Well like us if your diesel barrels are half full and you read news about the glut of fuel on the market and prices going down, do you call the fuelman up or wait? 

 

 

But "you" don`t have to sell for prices to go up...but your neighbors do  😉

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

a poor hungry man looks thru the window of a butcher shop, he see's all the plentiful supply of sausages, hams and other things

hanging in the shop and in the cooler.......does the butcher shop have to lower it's price due to the amount of sausage it has.......

 

NO

 

we have been conditioned to "think their way".......

 

kind of reminds me of Stephen Hawking's fear of artificial intelligence.  His fear is that the robots might get smarter than the humans,

and see the fault of their ways.

 

perhaps, that's why we have a daily feed of market news, and are reminded several times a day why the market is moving the way

it is.

 

imagine..........what if what they say is not true ?

 

and just how many times have "they" lied to us ??

 

what say you, Watson ??

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

But elcheapo, who's the "hungry man" in the enduser bussiness, to me they all look fuller than a tick that just got out of a all you can eat buffet. The "butcher" is gonna have to sell it or smell it.
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

butcher's have freezers

grain companies have grain bins.

 

again, you miss the point.......I see part of the problem tho......you have to have an answer NOW.........

 

that poor end user you are so worried about....when he needs the grain.......he will pay up......

 

ever hear of the saying "water water everywhere, but none to drink"..........same here......grain may be everywhere (which might be

debatable)....but if there is none for sale......he will have only 1 option, pay more, or not have grain, to either feed, or process.

 

just like the seed dealers, fertilizer dealers, jd dealership....they will buy it.....they have to, they need it......

 

the same with the end users

 

as you keep saying..........there is plenty of grain in the world........but as I showed, a bu of corn will cost the feedlot over $7.......

but if you made a offer to the locals, they might be so inclined to sell at maybe $7.......it all boils down, if you need it your

going to have to pay for it.....and don't try to scare me on "world production"........fine go ahead import it in, you will not

make anything, while as, if you pay me me, you can get it maybe a little cheaper.........

 

oh.....like posted here a little bit ago......it will not be max out income, but minium the losses..........

 

WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS GOOD FOR THE GANDER......they can struggle like the rest of us.

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

True. A lot of marketing is getting the producer to pay for the storage and guarantee delivery.
Much of the "marketing strategy" is oriented toward future supply with delayed expense to the end user. We will take your grain in 6 months for a 3 cent premium is just a bargain for the buyer.
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can You Handle The Truth?

WELL I must have hit a nerve.....I see my last post is gone......and for a while, I was getting a message "access denied"...........

 

I must have gotten pretty close to the truth..................

 

anyhow.........maybe I should diversity, and start the ElCheapo exchange.............

got to thinking, what is an exchange......the only thing I do is have a platform to make and take sales, and what I do is walk around

with a big stick (and a couple of lawyers in the back room).....that makes sure if you said you were going to pay, you pay, you

are going to deliver, you deliver.......there is no "official" involvement, other than renting out an office to the CFTC so they can

make sure someone isn't doing something underhanded.

 

let's see....we could have a milo exchange....no more playing second fiddle to corn

lets get a bit wild......we're going to have a lettuce pit.....have you seen the price as of late ?  local grocery is $2.99.

Imagine you are a restrant, you want to offset the price increase, so you can buy a call to help offset costs.

or, say you are dole, you look at the wx, rain and nasty heading twards the greens fields, you could buy call

to protect your "cost of production" from going up.......

same you produce lettuce...you hear stories that some had been contaminated within something, you quick call broker

and buy a put, in fears your price and demand will go down.

you are a pepper producer, you are looking at the wx maps, you see cold wx coming, if you don't have peppers,

you will not have money, and worse, the price goes up......so you place an order for a call.......so if the freeze hits,

you'll loose peppers, but while the price goes up, you ride that up and recoup some of your loss.

 

same with cucumbers, peppers....can't leave out the fruit people.....and sweet cherry pit.....oh that was bad, cherry pit.

 

don't laugh.....these would all be valid things to offset risk with..........

 

who knows, maybe even our resident option trader will come over and trade in our pits........

 

hey, if the Koch brothers down the road a ways can do it in the energy and weather (offering derivatives)

 

why can't we have our own "market"........who says you can't have more than one market........for years we had cbot wheat, kcbt wheat

and minn wheat......then we had another small exchange for the "softs".

 

I can see BA wildly waving his hand in the back......what about the produce brokers, there could be a big crop, they have to sell, so we

don't have to pay up...........but, those "green people"....got smart when they planted, they bought puts......so, we have a huge

crop, we don't have to take a low price, I have position in the elcheapo market....it's a good price, so I can just let it rot, my postion

offers me a better price than you are offering........

 

I would guess one of my biggest traders would be a clown with loud red hair.........Ronald McDonald..........

imagine, they have many many many fast food joints......they use a tons of lettuce, along with tomatos....imagine being able to

hedge in your input cost....the greens.......already could do things with the cost of beef and pork........

hmmmm...is there a chicken exchange ???  how interesting, hedging in your chicken nugget prices.

 

 

 

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketing Anything is either Now or

Down the Road in the Future.

 

It takes a Lot of Luck, Skill, Coincidence and Prayer  to correctly predict most anything in the Future.

 

In the meantime Ads and Media Sells and agri types tend to want free marketing advise.

 

sooooo...Sell ads and and the rest of it is Truly just entertainment Filler anyway.

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