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08-19-2018 10:16 AM
08-20-2018 09:47 AM
It's easy. If you turn a projection into a prediction and it works out, it's cyclical. If you turn a projection into a prediction and it doesn't work out, it's emotional.
Best bet - don't turn projections into predictions.
How does one do that?
Understand the basis of the projection. Continually modify the projection based on current, verifiable data. Bottom line - don't pretend and bet the farm that a projection is a prediction.
08-20-2018 10:07 AM - edited 08-20-2018 10:10 AM
In that theme, I would add -- projections must be realistic -- don't fluff a projection just because that's what you want, nor just because it's possible -- do let the inputs and steps stand on their own to arrive at a projection, as opposed to altering already established information to arrive at a 'desired' projection..
08-21-2018 08:46 PM
The USDA can "back" into the numbers any time they want........sometimes even changing the numbers from a previous year to make the numbers work.
Anyone could project with those rules.
Their over zealous numbers at the beginning of each season has cost farmers millions of dollars
They have been very good at keeping food both plentiful and inexpensive.
08-26-2018 11:26 AM - edited 08-26-2018 11:32 AM
Every year usda takes last years projections and turns them into histoical fact, just look for data of US historical poduction and check its source.... Then look at what data constitutes a trend as published by usda. You know what I was refering to --- the histoy that is generated by projection....... When we need to justify a slot in the budget it is always good to have history on our side. So we can always look back to compare our projections to the "historical" record "we" created and see how accurate we were.
We are the best in the world, and we are even the best source for "projecting" every other producing region in the world.......according to us. Barnum and Bailey esk.