Can anyone explain

[vrbuck]

The difference between an emotional high/low and a cyclical high/low. In my simple feeble mind I take it as an excuse for getting run over/catching falling knives and not knowing how to read charts. Like a certain person that thought we had a short term bear rally and got run over. To my feeble mind it seemed much bigger. Must just be me. BTW how was did the free meal in Indiana cost you? Or maybe it isn’t free anymore.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Cyl. Fairly regular til you bet the farm on one.

Emotional can happen any time without warning.

Darn, missed another freebie?

[JimMeade]

It's easy.  If you turn a projection into a prediction and it works out, it's cyclical.  If you turn a projection into a prediction and it doesn't work out, it's emotional.

Best bet - don't turn projections into predictions. 

How does one do that?

Understand the basis of the projection.  Continually modify the projection based on current, verifiable data.  Bottom line - don't pretend and bet the farm that a projection is a prediction.

[WCMO]

In that theme, I would add -- projections must be realistic -- don't fluff a projection just because that's what you want, nor just because it's possible -- do let the inputs and steps stand on their own to arrive at a projection, as opposed to altering already established information to arrive at a 'desired' projection..

[sw363535]

Jim your message is for usda........ they turn projections into facts every year.   Less likely than prediction accuracy.

[JimMeade]

SW, you have it exactly backwards.  Do you really believe this?  Unbelievable.

[WCMO]

A little healthy skepticism is always good, otherwise we would be run over by 'chicken-littles'.

[roarintiger1]

The USDA can "back" into the numbers any time they want........sometimes even changing the numbers from a previous year to make the numbers work.

Anyone could project with those rules.

Their over zealous numbers at the beginning of each season has cost farmers millions of dollars

They have been very good at keeping food both plentiful and inexpensive.

[sw363535]

Absoluely Jim,

Every year usda takes last years projections and turns them into histoical fact, just look for data of US historical poduction and check its source.... Then look at what data constitutes a trend as published by usda. You know what I was refering to  --- the histoy that is generated by projection....... When we need to justify a slot in  the budget it is always good to have history on our side. So we can always look back to compare our projections to the "historical" record "we" created and see how accurate we were. 

We are the best in the world, and we are even the best source for "projecting" every other producing region in the world.......according to us.   Barnum and Bailey esk.