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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Can someone explain to me why....

Can someone explain to me why trump & Xi called a truce over the weekend and now beans are down?

I understand that it was probably priced in last week but won't you think there'd be at least a little bump. 

After all, we're only a month or more to the start of the buying season and hopefully the Chinese will buy a few beans, anyhow.

And we already know that there will be fewer than 80 M acres of beans planted, and late at that.

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6 Replies
freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

My guess is that the markets are numb re:  trade talks between China and the US for the mere reason of "been there, no actual progress."  So we may not see the markets respond until the agreement is actually inked.

Trump is a deal-maker.  He didn't cave -- he knows that if he constantly comes in guns a'blazing, trying to force an Asian nuclear country that is going through an extremely nationalistic phase, where "respect and manners" can make or break a business deal, China would dig in its heels. 

The one thing that always causes unrest in China is food insecurity.  If the Chinese govt can "save face" (for lack of a better phrase) and still make a deal with the U.S. re: crop purchases, they will because their crop production right now mimics ours -- it completely sucks -- except China also has swine fever and army worms added to the mix. 

The South China Morning Post has a lot of articles on China's current "official" perspective of trade deals with the U.S.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016717/despite-donald-trump-and-xi-jinpings-g20-h...

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

No, you do not know that there are less than 80 mil acres of beans planted. No one has even suggested it. What NASS said in their lame way was, on June 1st farmers intended to plant 91 mi corn and 80 mil beans. Anyone with a brain, or even a sat image of Il east to PA knows that that some of the last 15 mil acres went to corn PP, some went to corn planted after June 15th (truely ridiculous), and lots went to beans. In my drive from Cleveland back to Indy Saturday I saw 15 planters planting beans, hundreds of empty fields, lots of beans on beans, like hundreds of fields of them.

So, just be careful what you think you "know" is all. Pretty likely WASDE was a lot closer than NASS. 

Of course, the yield number and the timing of harvest is going to be comically bad, what fun....

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cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

This is beyond stupid,every one knows that usda was a complete lie but yet keep knocking our prices down i just don't get it.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

boredman...the supercomputers do not know that, actually they have made billions the last 6 years by listening to NASS and not farmers. Is it real or isn't it? Apparently it is not real if you farm in MN where Vince reports record corn acres in record condition. It is real if you farm from IL to PA, but we never counted anyway, thus today it is not real....subject to change in the next report....just like the last one.


@cborman11 wrote:

This is beyond stupid,every one knows that usda was a complete lie



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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

Just me but I think the China trade war was out of the market after the first week of flooding in Nebraska..... way back then...it became just something to write about.  And the ASF/china Reuters talk became little more than just trade pump propaganda.... maybe now the market sees ASF as a possible "good thing" ratcheting down demand before price need to.

The price run up of 2012 was driven by strong, DC windbag, demand as well as drought,  This time things may be different.

The climate is definitely different... in more ways than weather.

China trade has been important to the hateful media and the POTUS fixated, but not to the market.  The market knows there is ASF and some crop inventory and a few months before this "45 day surplus" becomes critical..... We can feed our livestock inventory on green chop, wheat and whatever else we got.   This time we may ratchet back ethanol use to control grain prices, since we have lots of reasonably priced fossil fuel.  

Until we hit that point, why bid up supply---- and maybe we are all just tired of panic mode.  AS much as I want to see the west coast pay for another insane political campaign or 5 of them at once,  It didn't look like there is much money to decorate a stage for a debate over ineffective ideas let alone speculate on the commodities markets.  We all know there is a wreck coming but this one may not come with big fireworks, but just crushing reality.  I am glad i don't have much invested in seed research and computer technology robotics, or a showroom full of 100k pickups.  Mainstreet doesn't look flush with funds from out here ------- The next few years may be a difficult crawl back to reality.  Our whimper congress is not concerned with agriculture ---- the climate has changed...

k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Can someone explain to me why....

SW -  you  saved  me  a lot  of  typing,  and  Rural  Reformation - Econ  Sunday ,  nudging  closer while  we  speak  -  -  - 

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