Can someone please explain to me why trump signs the mother of all trade deals and beans sell off?

[rickgthf]

Can someone please explain to me why trump signs the mother of all trade deals and beans sell off 13 cents?

  The trump administration is still sticking with that $80 billion figure and while it's not quite twice as much as previous years, it's still a lot.  In order to get to that $80 billion, beans have to figure in somehow.  So why haven't beans at least hit $10?

  What am I missing here?

[bridgetbly]

Apparently there are no enforcement mechanisms.  If China doesn't feel like buying (and there is some language about "market conditions") then they just write a note saying, "we've decided we don't want to hold up our end of the deal" and they are out.

I think the traders believe that they will buy only when it suits them and only the amount that it suits them, which is basically where we were yesterday too. 

[nitefarm]

The same thing you and other Trump haters have been missing all along, some people hate him more than they want this country to be successful and some people think they know more about what goes on behind the scenes than the President does .If people had supported or at the very least had kept quiet about how he was doing something worth being impeached for instead of  presenting hear say evidence and other people saying that no one really thinks the dollar amount China would buy from us was really what we were told i bet you my old dirty hat( that i think a lot of) that it wouldn't have taken this long to have gotten to where we are today, other countries leaders are not as dumb as  some in this country are when it comes to trade, over regulation of industry and putting yourself above everything else.I have no doubt that prices will improve some but if any one thinks low prices are Trumps fault they haven't been paying very good attention to what the government reports have been saying for decades,cheap food has been and probably always will be the goal of what ever party is in control in D.C.

[wrightcattle]

The tariffs are still On. 

Don't ever believe Trump hype.  He's a grafty crook and Liar. 

[sdholloway56]

I'm being deadly serious here- not just snarky.

Until proven otherwise I'll maintain that Phase 1 is actually a Fake News Trade Truce where we pretend to remove tariffs and they pretend they're going to buy that much stuff.

Still wide open to be demogoged to death into the election, though.

[sdholloway56]

Good news- more Stormy payments in '20 a cinch.

[sdholloway56]

I do agree though, Trump or no Trump (not a bid in bridge) that these times would have proven somewhat challenging regardless.

After stretching the cost of production way out of whack there was always going to be a reckoning.

[erikjohnson61y]

What did you guys expect - $15 Beans on day one??? Geez...  A common rule of thumb in trading is "Buy the rumor, sell the fact".  Give it a month or two before you trash it.

Certainly *some* element of the trade agreement is why beans have been slowly rising over the past few weeks. But world demand doesn't change that fast for food/fiber. As when the tariffs went on, it's more about world trade patterns. If the deal holds, China will buy more beans from us, leaving Brazil and Argentina to again supply more of the people they did before the tariffs.

At best, I expect "back to normal" for ag trade. Remember, the purpose of the tariffs was to get China to behave better on technology transfer, currency manipulation, and corporate espionage. We are involved because China retaliated against ag with their tariffs.

I expect to sell some beans out of the bin this summer for $10, and maybe some corn for $4.25. That will be nice.  Not great, but nice. But now that the deal is signed, the market will go back to watching the weather and WASDE reports...

[erikjohnson61y]

You are exactly right, nitefarm. Only Bernie Sanders thinks bread lines are a good thing. 

[sdholloway56]

Bernie isn't popular with one of America's most privileged class of socialists?