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freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can someone please explain to me why trump signs the mother of all trade deals and beans sell of

Raise your hands. 

How many of you trust the United States government whether it's flying a rainbow flag with its chartreuse hammer & sickle motif or flying the good ole Red, White and Blue?  I surely don't and haven't for decades because the people running the government just are not trustworthy.

But in regards to soybeans, there is a rumor currently making the rounds that folks in-the-know don't believe that Brazil and Argentina can continue to make up for the loss of American soybeans, especially if China gets their hog production back online, and that few alternative providers exist outside of the U.S., so it is believed that China has to do either one of two things:  1) Start to buy American soybeans in MUCH larger quantities, or 2) Somehow get the Chinese people to disregard their culture's dependence on pork on a "support China's independence and don't eat pork" basis.

So we will see what we shall see.

 

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r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Can someone please explain to me why trump signs the mother of all trade deals and beans sell of

For now I look to see the Chinese buy more pork and less beans. If they can get their pork production back up remains to be seen. I don't think we know yet how hard this virus will be to control.

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: In the 17/18 market year......

In 17/18 market year the Chinese bought 94 MMT of soybeans, 27.8 MMT from the US.  In the 18/19 market year, in the very height of the ASF epidemic, the Chinese still bought 82.5 MMT, 14.2 MMT from the US.

   This means that in 17/18 they bought 66.2 MMT from somebody besides the US and in 18/19 they still  bought 68.3 MMT from somebody else.

  So, in both of those years, they bought between 3 and 5 times as much from US competitors than the US.  It seems to me that if they were the least bit serious about buying more US agricultural products, like soybeans, there is plenty of room for them to show their sincerity.  And keep in mind, they've only got 11.3 MMT on the books so far this year.

  So, if they don't pick up the pace of buying soon, we should conclude that maybe they aren't too serious about this mother of all trade deals.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re:Don't look now but....

Don't look now but all indications are that Brazil will have bummer crop this year and will continue to expand production 5% per year.

Unless the Chinese honor their commitment to Phase One they won't have any trouble sourcing enough beans from South America to replace the majority of the 30 (or so) MMT they have been buying from us. At this rate it will only take the Brazilians 5 years to completely replace that 30 MMT.

  All trump's trade war did was provide the motivation and the extra resources for the Brazilians to clear and improve more area.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Don't look now but....

There is such a thing as being competitive in the global market, if Brazil can put beans in a Hong Kong port for $10 and Brazil`s yields are up, up, up and more rain forest is cleared every day....well, US growers better also find a way to be happy with $10 beans FOB Hong Kong destination.  

Unless, we use the $400 billion trade deficit with China as a hammer over their head so that we sort of budge to the head of the line to get rid of our beans first, which is what President Trump is accomplishing.  China will have to buy $40 billion in ag products out of the extra $200 billion they agreed to buy in US goods.  Perhaps it will be pork and beef and we will run soybean meal through the meats that we export, which is a much better deal for us than raw soybeans.  Perhaps we`ll export ethanol and DDGs, which will find use from our corn acres that will indirectly benefit beans due to a bidding war for acres.  

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Can someone please explain to me why trump signs the mother of all trade deals and beans sell of

3020 -  why  would  you  buy  something  -  you  already  own  -  Carolina pork  company -  ? 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Don't look now but....

Why  is  A D M  is  looking  for  a  buyer  for  it's  ethanol  plants  - ? 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Don't look now but....

Only Peter Navarro and his imaginary friend think that the trade deficit is the highest economic priority.

But you never know about the party that thinks that budget deficits are an existential problem when they're not in power.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Don't look now but....

Without those annual $400 Billion trade surpluses against the US, China wouldn`t be able to buy Smithfield Pork and Syngenta.   US workers that a generation ago had a $25/hr factory job, ribeyes on the dinner plate, now replaced by a $11/hr Quickee Mart job and Hamburger Helper on the dinner plate....and for them a tough choice of if they are going to support Bernie or Warren...."Biden too conservative and we gotta git rdda that trump".   Hate to tell the brave men that stormed the beaches of Normandy, but coulda just as well let the krauts have it, in 3 generations we`re giving it all up anyway.   Socialism is no longer a 2% electorate novelty, the old joke Gus Hall now in the Democrat primaries would be leading Biden.  

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Re:Don't look now but....

RE-READ ,  Rick Friday  cartoon  ,  nailed  it ,  on  the  2129  Iowa  Farmers  -  -  -

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