cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
hardnox
Advisor

Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

overnight, to sell beans over 10.

 

Actually can't believe they gave us a first chance, which is why I didn't have orders in. Again.

 

Word is that chinese hot money hedge funds are running wild in a number of their domestic commodity markets. I can't find much suggestion of beans but it is a fair guess that's what's going on, given the timing of the moves.

 

This is potentailly going to make for a pretty bad looking chart. May not close so bad and who knows, they might be back Sunday night.

 

But this time I think I'll voluntarily pass- if they can do it again it might be good.

0 Kudos
7 Replies
SouTx
Contributor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

Close is Very Important.  Everyone prolly has own ideas of bean market moves and reasons.  There have been more head fakes than a Presidential Election!!!    Time will tell.  It always does.  

Regards. 

0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

Ok............but there have been more than two chances to sell $10 soybeans before now..........and there will be more chances later as well.   geez.

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

How later???

0 Kudos
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

Not totally unequivocal but not a bullish close.

 

Given how it has been going wouldn't be shocked by some overnight buying Sun and the low was the 50dma so would expect funds to defend longs there.

 

But don't personally want to be long here given the action.

0 Kudos
JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

We are in a La Nina so somebody will have bad weather and grain prices will go up.  Hold for now or if you are rash buy futures or calls.

South America is on the way to planting lots of corn and soybeans.  There will be a glut of grain next year.  Sell everything right now for the best price you can get.

The Southeast is in a drought and that means the cornbelt will be dry next year.  Buy the board, take out crop insurance and don't sell anything ahead.  Huge profits in store.

American foreign policy will be isolationist and kill exports.  Sell now for the best price you can get.

Sell the cash now below your cost of production and spend money you don't have on calls that history shows usually expire worthless.  Better yet, buy the board so you get margin calls to boot.

All of the above.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Can't beleive they gave as a second chance

We are in a La Nina so somebody will have bad weather and grain prices will go up.  Hold for now or if you are rash buy futures or calls.

Good chance but not that uncommon.  Increased international trade, as designed, is limiting the effect of regional diseasters........ as long as economics will allow.

 

South America is on the way to planting lots of corn and soybeans.  There will be a glut of grain next year.  Sell everything right now for the best price you can get.

Again a normal year to year reality that does not necessarily determine a glut of grain.  If US exports continue after the election, we are still making up for the nonexistant "glut of grain" from SA last year after planting lots of acres... and economics have not improved in SA or in the US.... Which may be our best clue that input's will get cheaper....and are....

 

The Southeast is in a drought and that means the cornbelt will be dry next year.  Buy the board, take out crop insurance and don't sell anything ahead.  Huge profits in store.

BAD idea......... depending on Crop insurance for anything but a glorified loss...... this is depending on making huge profits from futures risk.........  betting on volatility when the world grain expansion and foreign trade is working to reduce volatility........... If your out of the production business anyway .... this is an option... or a final option.

 

American foreign policy will be isolationist and kill exports.  Sell now for the best price you can get. This assumes a falling world market and the export business the last three months indicates different.  No chance of isolationism.... we are too big a player( or too dependent).  We may adjust attitude and reach better bargains, but we are not going to roll back history in foreign policy.  Too much interdependancy.   Commodity international trade is not part of the new globalism.. It has been one of our strengths for decades..

The chance of changing some domestic policy is far better.

Sell the cash now below your cost of production and spend money you don't have on calls that history shows usually expire worthless.  Better yet, buy the board so you get margin calls to boot.

Not an option except in the mind of a marketing advisor....  It explains itself lll

 

Sell a little cash and pay bills.  Hold out of the Harvest feeding frenzy.  Give basis a chance to recover.  Resist the siren call of input bargains that are complicated to figure out and allow that side of the market to adjust..  We have a lot of input suppliers who have serious problems in quality of product and don't know how much bad debt they will eat in the next 2 months.  Nothing happened this year to support input prices even at current levels.... fertilizer is down and other inputs should continue to slide down as well.  Financing expenses in SA and the US should get stressfull in the next 6 months...  It is time to save and see how many hours we can get on this "modern digital equipment"....  Or it is time to see the market adjust to the cash flow model  they always do even though they don't care...

 

JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can't believe they gave us a second chance

My whimsical slices of common wisdom all relate to supply.

Your objective and sober response is based on demand.

There is likely to be some money made in this melange but I'm not sure where it is.  That is the rub.  That is always the rub.

0 Kudos