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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Can you hear me now....

Crop is a train wreck......see what demand does.......MT out.......
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7 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Can you hear me now....

You forgot the "End Communication"  statement.

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gbryce
Frequent Contributor

Re: Can you hear me now....

"Crop is a train wreck" I think that is beginning to be understood .

"See what demand does", So MT or others, at what price does ethanol mandate get shoved ? at what price does blenders credit go? How much demand will be lost in this price range (@ $7.50)

 One thing I am really watching is how much new crop corn has over 20 ppb alflatoxin as this will make it useless locally. For me that makes a good case for holding wheat , as it may be worth it as a feed grain.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Can you hear me now....

The price of corn on the West Coast for Asia, to the producer, is @ $8.90 bu. Wheat to the producer (SWW) is $7.20 Portland.

 

There are several zingers hidden here. Yes, wheat is feed. But the exporters are above a $1 a bu difference to load the ships. So, what are they charging for loading corn? By the way, corn in the desert of interior Washington is a big deal now - and the highest yields of any state in the nation (250+).

 

This has been going on for some time. China buys and will buy. Feed wheat is getting to be an item. Higher protein. DDG's with wheat should be worth more I'd guess.

 

The game is changing and money is being made at all levels. Wheat IS feed. i'm guessing a large shift in feed wheat usage to accomodate a smaller corn crop. Brazil will grow more corn.

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Can you hear me now....

Demand falls apart and yuou get 4.50 to 5.00 corn for most around here that is a money LOSER!  Moth balled E plants come back real quick.  Cattle not so much!

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Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: Can you hear me now....

8$ corn isn't permanent a new era- it invites the next bear mkt.

 

if teh crop is 148, we need to ration more now.

if not   ..

 

etc

 

]White wheat will sell at teh COP within 2 yrs.

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dafeeder
Veteran Contributor

Re: Can you hear me now....

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: Can you hear me now....

The blenders Credit gets taken away regardless,  will demand for ethanol fad?   Will demand for gasoline fad?   That's the question that needs answered.  As long as we have internal combustion engines we need some kind of fuel in them.  They tell me once you get 6 months out you can't make money with ethanol, but does that figure in the DDG's profit?   

 

$8 corn is not here to stay, and it will cause the next bear market, but when will supply catch up and surpass demand? 

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