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Veteran Advisor

Canadian Production Figures

Thought you guys might like to see this:



Released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time in The Daily, Friday, October 3, 2014


Farmers expect lower levels of production for most field crops this year compared with the bumper crops on the


Canadian Prairies in 2013. However, soybean production could climb to a sixth consecutive record high.


At the time of this survey, some Prairie farmers reported harvest areas being subject to damaging weather events,


such as hail and snow.




Nationally, total wheat production is expected to fall 26.8% from 2013 to 27.5 million tonnes. Harvested area is


expected to decline 10.5% to 23.1 million acres, while average yield is expected to fall 18.2% to 43.7 bushels per



    Saskatchewan anticipates production to decline 26.9% to 13.4 million tonnes. Average yield is expected to


    be 38.8 bushels per acre, 19.0% lower than in 2013.


    Alberta (-24.0%) and Manitoba (-34.5%) are also expecting lower production.




    Canola production is anticipated to decline 21.6% from the record high in 2013 to 14.1 million tonnes. Most of this


    decrease can be attributed to lower expected average yield, down 19.8% to 32.1 bushels per acre nationally.


    Farmers in Saskatchewan expect a 20.2% decline in yield this year. As a result, production is expected to


    decrease 22.9% to 6.9 million tonnes.


    Alberta farmers expect production to decline 17.8% from 2013 to 4.9 million tonnes. This is mainly driven by


    a 19.2% drop in yield to 35.3 bushels per acre.


    In Manitoba, production is anticipated to fall 25.7% from 2013 to 2.1 million tonnes.




    Canadian farmers reported soybean production could reach another record level in 2014 at 6.0 million tonnes.


    Production in Ontario is expected to increase 10.3% to 3.6 million tonnes. A 16.8% increase in harvested area is


    expected to drive the overall gain compared with 2013. Average yield is expected to decline 5.7% to 43.3 bushels


    per acre.


    Farmers in Quebec expect overall output to reach the 1.0 million tonne mark for the first time in 2014. As in Ontario,


    a larger harvested area (+19.8%) is expected to boost production.


    Manitoba is anticipating a stable level of production in 2014 at 1.1 million tonnes. Higher harvested area (+15.8%) is


    expected to be offset by a 5.0 bushel per acre decrease in yield from 2013 to 32.6 bushels per acre.


    Corn for grain


    Nationally, production of corn for grain is anticipated to decline 19.7% from the record high of 14.2 million tonnes


    in 2013 to 11.4 million tonnes this year.


    The Daily, Friday, October 3, 2014


    2 Component of Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-X


    In Ontario, farmers expect to harvest 1.9 million acres, a 15.8% decrease from 2013. Consequently, production is


    expected to decline 18.2% to 7.4 million tonnes.


    Quebec farmers also expect a lower harvested area of corn for grain, down 13.8% to 873,500 acres. As a result,


    production is anticipated to decline 15.6% from 2013 to 3.2 million tonnes.


    Barley and oats


    Canadian farmers are expecting barley production to decrease 30.5% from 2013 to 7.1 million tonnes. A decrease


    in both harvested area (down 19.6% to 5.3 million acres) and yield (down 13.5% to 62.0 bushels per acre) are


    expected to account for the overall decline.


    At the national level, production of oats is expected to decrease 31.2% to 2.7 million tonnes. The decrease results


    from anticipated declines in both harvested area (down 20.5% to 2.2 million acres) and an average yield


    of 79.7 bushels per acre, down 13.5% from 2013.





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    5 Replies
    Senior Advisor

    Re: Canadian Production Figures

    The real story may be the declines in quality on the Prairies - and probably even lower yields due to weather events.

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    Veteran Advisor

    Re: Canadian Production Figures

    I know - I was thinking about that too. I know the Prairies got hit hard by the frost/freeze last month. No info on when this information was collected.

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    Senior Contributor

    collection dates

    Note to readers
    The September Farm Survey of crop production covering about 9,300 Canadian farms was conducted from September 4 to 14, 2014. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

    Farm surveys collect data from Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta at all six survey occasions during the crop year (which extends from the December to the following November occasion). However, data are collected twice a year (in the June Farm survey on seeded areas and in the November Farm survey on final crop production) for Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia, which represent between 2% and 4% of national totals.

    As of July 2014 for the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia, July and September production estimates are calculated using the final estimates of the last three crop years. The harvested area is first estimated based on the ratio obtained from the sum of harvested areas of the last three years over the sum of the seeded areas of the last three years. This average ratio is applied to their 2014 reported seeded acreage from the June survey. This estimated harvested area is then multiplied by the average yield of the last three years to estimate production.

    Final production estimates for 2014 will be released on December 4, 2014, and are subject to revision for two years.

    Percentage changes are calculated using unrounded data.


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    Senior Advisor

    Re: collection dates

    I wonder how crops broken down by snow will be included.

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    Re: Canadian Production Figures

    Canadian production numbers are always understated.. As harvest moves on things will rise.
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